The National Bank assessed whether Ukraine will have enough international aid
The expected volumes of international support will be enough to finance the deficit of Ukraine's state budget without monetary emission. External receipts will also allow the National Bank to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market, said NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi.
According to the regulator's estimate, the total direct budget support from international partners in 2026 may reach about $54 billion. Ukraine has already started receiving funds under the Ukraine Support Loan program, and the International Monetary Fund in July completed the first review of the four-year Extended Fund Facility program.
Non-emission financing means that the state will not need to resort to direct purchase of bonds by the National Bank and additional hryvnia issuance to cover budget expenditures. This approach reduces the risks of increased inflation and pressure on the exchange rate.
A significant part of the funds allocated for the defense component of the Ukraine Support Loan program will be directed to arms production within Ukraine. Previously, the country mainly received ready-made weapons from partners, whereas now external financing will partially support Ukrainian enterprises.
The NBU expects that thanks to foreign currency inflows, Ukraine's international reserves will grow to nearly $70 billion by the end of 2026. This will enhance the regulator's ability to conduct interventions and smooth excessive exchange rate fluctuations.
At the same time, the localization of arms production will increase the need for imports of components and structural demand for foreign currency. Therefore, the National Bank will likely have to increase intervention volumes to meet the needs of the economy and maintain a stable market situation.
The regulator warns that the risk of disrupted timing or changes in international financing volumes persists. Additional pressure may arise from new budget needs related to defense and restoration of damaged infrastructure.
Source: National Bank of Ukraine
