Better harvest of grains and oilseeds expected in Ukraine

The Ukrainian Grain Association improved the forecast of the harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2026 by 1 million tons – to 84.6 million tons.

The previous estimate expected production of 83.6 million tons. The forecast was raised thanks to favorable weather, sufficient moisture and better expected yields of early crops.

The UGA also increased the estimate of possible exports in 2026/2027 marketing year from 50.8 million to almost 52 million tons. For comparison, in the last season Ukraine exported 41.1 million tons of grains and oilseeds.

Updated forecast expects an increase of the wheat harvest from previously expected 22.8 million to 23.7 million tons. Potential wheat exports raised from 17 million to 18 million tons.

Barley harvest is now estimated at 5.5 million tons instead of 5.2 million tons. Under unimpeded logistics, about 2.3 million tons of this crop could be delivered to external markets.

The corn harvest forecast remained at 32.1 million tons, and its possible exports at 27 million tons. In 2025, Ukraine harvested 31.1 million tons of corn and exported 21 million tons.

Sunflower production could reach 13.3 million tons versus 11.1 million tons last year. Almost all harvest is planned to be processed in Ukraine, and seed exports will not exceed 40 thousand tons.

The rapeseed harvest is forecast at 3.5 million tons, of which about 1.9 million tons may be exported. Meanwhile, soybean production estimate was lowered compared to the previous forecast – from 4.9 million to 4.6 million tons. Its potential exports are expected at 2.2 million tons.

The association stressed that the export forecast is an optimistic scenario. Its implementation requires fully restoring the operation of the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa and stopping Russian attacks on transport and energy infrastructure, as well as on ships calling at Ukrainian ports.

Limited capacities for exporting the harvest may lead to a decrease in domestic prices, deterioration of farmers' financial situation and have a negative impact on the Ukrainian economy and balance of payments.

Based on: Ukrainian Grain Association