Russian Oil Refining at Over 20-Year Low Due to Ukraine's Attacks - Bloomberg
In July, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian oil refineries, tankers, ports and pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times. This is the second-highest monthly figure since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Bloomberg reports this, having counted the number of strikes based on public statements from Ukrainian and Russian sides.
The statistics did not include eight attacks on tankers linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in the Black Sea, as no one claimed responsibility. If Ukraine's involvement is confirmed, July will be a record month for the number of strikes against Russian oil facilities.
In the first half of the month, Ukraine focused on oil refineries. Targets included the Omsk refinery – the largest in Russia, located over 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border.
Due to damages to the plants, Russian companies reduced oil refining to the lowest level since May 2002 and were forced to increase crude oil exports to near-record volumes.
In the second half of July, tankers and maritime infrastructure became the primary targets. This gave some refineries time for repairs and resumption of operations, but heightened risks for Russian exports via the Black and Azov Seas.
According to Financial Times estimates, of the 26 Russian refineries that halted production following strikes by Ukrainian drones, 19 had returned to full or partial capacity as of July 27. Seven facilities remained completely shut down.
According to EA Analytics estimates, the average oil refining volume in Russia in July was about 3.6 million barrels per day. This is slightly more than the previous forecast of 3.5 million barrels, but roughly a third below seasonal norms.
At the end of July, Ukraine again intensified strikes on refineries: over the last three days of the month, three more large enterprises were attacked, and over the following weekends, four more were struck.
The strikes also affected operations at the port of Novorossiysk, which handles about 20% of Russian seaborne crude oil exports. In the week to July 26, only four tankers were loaded there, compared with seven and eight respectively in the two preceding weeks.
Russia could partly reroute oil from Novorossiysk to Baltic ports. However, Rystad Energy analysts believe that reserve capacity in pipelines, storage, and tanker fleet will be insufficient to fully replace Black Sea volumes.
Against the backdrop of attacks, Moscow extended the ban on most gasoline and diesel fuel shipments abroad, trying to avoid a shortage in the domestic market.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mykhailo Drapaty previously stated that Ukraine aims to increase Russian losses and reduce its ability to finance the war, employing asymmetric approaches and Ukrainian technologies.
Ukrainian military officials also reported at least 125 attacks on vessels linked to Russia, including 90 strikes on tankers in the Black Sea and Azov Seas. Bloomberg notes that it could not independently confirm these figures.
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Times
