Sea blockade created a tougher crisis for Ukrainian metallurgy than in 2022
The effective suspension of maritime shipping could deal a stronger blow to Ukrainian metallurgy than the port blockade in 2022. Iron ore product output may shrink by 35%, and monthly losses of the industry could reach $150-200 million.
Such estimates were provided by Andriy Tarasenko, chief analyst at GMK Center. According to him, the current situation differs from the start of the full-scale war by a combination of problems with maritime logistics, new EU trade restrictions, the CBAM in effect, and rising raw material prices.
The sea corridor remains the primary sales channel for Ukrainian metallurgy and the mining sector. In the first half of 2026, about 50% of Ukrainian steel exports, 95% of iron exports, and half of iron ore exports were shipped through it.
European market can no longer compensate for the loss of the sea
In 2022, the European Union abolished duties and some trade barriers for Ukrainian goods. This allowed companies to partially redirect exports to the European market after the blocking of sea ports.
However, from July 1, 2026, a new system of tariff quotas for steel imports began to operate in the EU. According to GMK Center estimates, these restrictions could reduce supplies of Ukrainian steel to EU countries by about 60% compared to 2025.
Additional risks arose for exports of semi-finished steel products, which were mainly shipped by sea to Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Italy, and Spain. In the first half of the year, the volume of such shipments was around 520,000 tons.
Formally, semi-finished products are not subject to the new EU quotas, but transporting them by land routes is financially unfavorable due to low margins and costs associated with the CBAM carbon border adjustment mechanism. GMK Center experts believe that annual output in this segment may decrease by another approximately 1 million tons.
Iron ore enterprises may suspend capacities
The mining sector remains the most vulnerable. In 2022, companies could ship products through European ports owing to high global iron ore prices – about $120 per ton.
Currently, prices have fallen below $98 per ton, so the more expensive route via EU ports may not pay off. As a result, some iron ore capacities will likely have to be placed on care and maintenance, and production may shrink by 35% compared to the figures from the first half of 2026.
Imported coal will become more expensive
Problems arise not only with exports but also with raw material supplies. After losing the Pokrovske coal group, Ukrainian metallurgical plants depend on imported coal, around 70% of which comes from the United States and Australia.
Without the possibility of direct maritime supply, cargo will have to be directed to European ports and then transported to Ukraine by rail. Such a route may be twice as expensive and increase the final cost of coal by approximately 15%.
The halt of maritime shipping could also affect the domestic market. Through ports, Ukraine imported coated rolled products from Turkey, thick plate, structural shapes, and other products which Ukrainian enterprises do not manufacture. Some of these goods may become more expensive or temporarily disappear from the market.
GMK Center estimates direct losses for Ukrainian metallurgy due to export reductions at $150-200 million per month. This sum does not account for costlier logistics and raw materials, increased production costs, and possible plant shutdowns.
Earlier, CURRENT Ukraine wrote about the temporary halt of vessel entries to Ukrainian ports and about new EU restrictions on steel imports.
