US intelligence allowed Russia to attack NATO by 2029

Vladimir Putin
Фото: Vladimir Putin

Moscow could resort to a cyberattack, hybrid operation, or limited incursion on the Alliance's eastern flank. The most aggressive scenario is currently assessed by US intelligence agencies as unlikely.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO's readiness to defend its members through a limited attack in the coming years. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing new assessments by US intelligence and US officials.

Previously, US intelligence agencies believed Putin would not provoke NATO states as long as Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine. Now, analysts suggest the Russian leader may become more dangerous if the front-line situation or internal problems put him in a difficult position.

Intelligence assessments consider several possible scenarios:

  • a large-scale cyberattack against one of the NATO states;
  • the use of armed groups without identifying insignia to seize a small territory;
  • a limited ground incursion on the Alliance's eastern flank.

The potential time frame for a Russian operation is estimated from autumn 2026 to 2029. The likelihood of a ground incursion is currently considered low, but according to the intelligence assessment, it may grow over time.

A direct attack on a NATO state should activate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense. At the same time, the Alliance's response to a cyberattack, sabotage, or other hybrid operation remains less clear. Moscow could exploit exactly this uncertainty to test the unity of the allies.

Representatives of the Pentagon and NATO's Joint Force Command in Europe declined to comment on secret intelligence. NATO stated that the Alliance monitors potential scenarios and is ready to deter and repel threats.

The assessment emerged amid concerns over the depletion of American stocks of critical munitions. According to WSJ sources, scarce items include long-range Precision Strike Missiles and ATACMS, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, as well as Patriot, SM-3, and THAAD interceptors.

Part of the US stocks was transferred to Ukraine after the start of the Russian invasion, and a significant number of missiles were also expended by the US during the conflict with Iran. CSIS analysts estimate that the use of certain systems against Iran reduced their initial stocks by about half. Replenishing production of some missile types may take several years.

The Pentagon denies reports of a critical shortage. The White House also stated that the US Army has sufficient munitions to accomplish its assigned tasks, although President Donald Trump called on defense companies to accelerate production.

Based on materials from: The Wall Street Journal, The Kyiv Independent, CSIS

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