Price growth to accelerate: NBU updated inflation forecast for 2026

The National Bank expects Ukraine's economy to grow by 1.8% this year. The regulator also allows for further hiking of the key policy rate.

Consumer inflation in Ukraine will accelerate to 10% by the end of 2026. In 2027 it should decrease to 6.9%, and in 2028 return to the target of 5%. This is outlined in the July Inflation Report of the National Bank.

Price pressures will be amplified by large-scale fiscal stimuli, further growth in companies' wage costs, as well as rising fuel prices and the earlier hryvnia weakening.

The NBU forecasts that Ukraine's economy will grow by 1.8% in 2026. In 2027–2028 real GDP growth rates could accelerate to 2.8–3% annually.

Economic activity will be supported by budget spending and channeling part of international funding into the localization of arms production in Ukraine. At the same time, Russian strikes on enterprises, logistics and energy infrastructure will continue to restrain output and investment.

"The overall negative contribution of shelling to GDP dynamics in 2026 is estimated at 0.9 percentage points", — the regulator noted.

Due to labor shortages, real wages in 2026 may grow by more than 12%. The unemployment rate, according to NBU estimates, will drop to 10%, and over the following two years – to around 9%.

The updated forecast assumes a possible increase in the key policy rate from the current 15.5% to 16% in 2026. A return to monetary policy easing is expected in the second quarter of 2027.

The NBU also projects that international support for Ukraine will reach $87 billion in 2026, $59 billion in 2027, and $33 billion in 2028. This should help boost international reserves to $70–74 billion.

Source: National Bank of Ukraine