Wheat climbs to highest since the end of July on Black Sea risks

US wheat futures have risen to their highest level in over a week. Traders are reacting to shipping disruptions in the Black Sea and the risk of reduced supply from a key grain-producing region.

The most active wheat contract in Chicago gained 1.8% on Monday, reaching its highest since July 30. Other grain contracts were supported by the rise.

Futures on US hard red winter wheat with high protein content rose even more – by 2.4%.

One factor was Turkey's decision to temporarily suspend the passage of its vessels through the Black Sea due to heightened security risks linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. Traffic was later resumed after delays.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea region.

Market pressure was amplified by Ukraine's warning that agricultural exports in the 2026-2027 marketing year could fall by more than half compared to earlier estimates due to Russian strikes on port and logistics infrastructure.

Ukraine remains one of the world's largest agricultural suppliers. According to Ukrainian government estimates, food produced in the country feeds around 400 million people.

US hard winter wheat is considered a direct competitor to high-protein grain from Ukraine, other Black Sea countries, and Europe. Therefore, the risk of reduced Black Sea supply had a stronger impact specifically on this market segment.

The disruptions do not yet mean an automatic increase in US exports, but they curb the available grain supply on the global market. Importers will have to search more actively for alternative suppliers, which will support prices for quality wheat.

It was previously reported that Black Sea strikes have already pushed up global wheat prices. Meanwhile, Ukrainian exporters cannot fully take advantage of the price hike due to maritime logistics problems. Notably, grain shipments by rail to the ports of the Odesa region fell by over 80% last month.

Based on materials from: Bloomberg