Ukraine cuts grain export forecast due to attacks on ports

Ukraine has downgraded its grain export forecast for the 2026/2027 marketing year amid intensifying Russian attacks on Black Sea ports. The country now expects to ship 38–40 million tonnes of grain, down from the previously anticipated 43 million tonnes, Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Taras Vysotskyi said. That puts the upper bound of the forecast cut at around 12%.

This is the first official revision of the forecast since the sharp deterioration in sea logistics. Since late July, Russian attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa, export terminals and vessels have substantially complicated agricultural shipments. Some terminals earlier suspended grain receiving, and shipowners refused to call at Ukrainian ports because of elevated military risks.

The sea route is critical for Ukraine’s agriculture sector. About 90% of grain and oilseed exports travel via Black Sea ports. Rail, road and Danube routes, even under the most favourable conditions, can cover only about 45–50% of the annual supply volume.

Redirecting cargoes onto alternative routes simultaneously increases costs for farmers. According to the same ministry’s estimate, the additional logistics cost can run to €50–70 per tonne. If sea‑export restrictions drag on, direct losses for Ukraine’s agriculture sector could hit $1.5–3 billion.

Another headache is the accumulation of the harvest inside the country. The ministry warns that if the current restrictions persist Ukraine could be short by around 11 million tonnes of storage capacity for grain already this autumn. The authorities are preparing temporary storage solutions and financial support for producers that have to simultaneously finance the current harvest and the next sowing campaign.

Independent assessments are close to the government’s new forecast. Analysts at APK-Inform lowered their own grain‑export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tonnes. They expect about 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 24 million tonnes of corn and 1.5 million tonnes of barley to be shipped.

For Kurs this is a new twist in an already developing story around the port blockade. In July the outlet reported about a drop in the grain‑loading capacity of Greater Odesa ports from roughly 6 million to 4 million tonnes a month and about the temporary halt of new vessel arrivals. Now the consequences of the attacks were for the first time reflected directly in the official annual export forecast.

Sources: Reuters, Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine