Putin will not negotiate as long as Ukraine cannot fully repel ballistic strikes - ISW

Russia is reorienting its long-range weapons production toward ballistic missiles, seeking to exploit the shortage of interceptors for Patriot systems in Ukraine. In this way, the Kremlin hopes to intensify strikes on cities and infrastructure during the next winter, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War.

According to ISW's assessment, the Russian leadership sees the shortage of interceptor missiles as an opportunity to inflict significant damage on Ukraine and increase pressure on Kyiv. Patriot remains the only system available to Ukraine capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.

Analysts assume that Moscow hopes to use winter strikes on energy facilities, industrial enterprises, and other critical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to continue resistance. In parallel, Russia is reorienting its drone production toward faster jet-powered models, which are harder to intercept.

ISW believes that the Kremlin will not be ready for serious negotiations or compromises as long as Vladimir Putin believes in the possibility of achieving his goals by military means. The reduction in the supply of Patriot interceptors, analysts argue, could contribute to prolonging the war into 2027.

ISW's assessment came amid an increase in Russian ballistic strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. On the night of August 11, Russia again attacked the capital with ballistic missiles.

Based on materials: Institute for the Study of War