Diesel at 100 UAH in August is off the table: importers meet market demand

The forecast of a possible rise in diesel prices to 100 UAH per liter in August has lost relevance. Ukrainian companies have contracted sufficient volumes of the resource, so a systemic shortage in the market is not expected at the moment.

This was stated by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the "A-95 Consulting Group", in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, prices at Ukrainian gas stations have stabilized after a previous spike. The scenario of diesel at 100 UAH per liter will not materialize in the near future unless a new escalation occurs in the Middle East.

Earlier, experts assumed that due to rising petroleum product prices and more complex logistics, prices could approach 100 UAH per liter as early as the beginning of August. However, after the global market correction and the signing of new contracts, this forecast has not come true.

No fuel shortage expected

The August batches of gasoline and diesel contracted by Ukrainian importers should fully meet current demand. According to Kuyun's assessment, there are no problems with the physical availability of fuel now.

At the same time, the market remains difficult to forecast. Ukraine depends on imports of petroleum products, so domestic prices react to changes in global quotes, the situation on the European market, and logistics costs.

Further dynamics will largely depend on negotiations between the US and Iran. Reaching agreements could lead to a significant drop in global prices. A new escalation, on the contrary, could intensify the shortage of oil and petroleum products and bring back the risk of price increases.

Attacks on oil depots remain a domestic risk

A separate threat to the Ukrainian market is the systematic Russian attacks on oil depots, storage facilities, and supply routes. Because of this, uninterrupted logistics cannot be guaranteed in the long term, even with sufficient contracted volumes.

Kuyun advises citizens, businesses, and municipalities to keep a small fuel reserve, especially ahead of winter. This means a stock for temporary supply disruptions, not an expected nationwide shortage.

In the expert's opinion, decentralized storage of small reserves also reduces the burden on gas stations during periods of panic demand and lowers dependence on large centralized depots that could become targets of Russian strikes.

Source: RBC-Ukraine (Maria Kucheryavets)