USDA expects larger grain harvest in Ukraine, but smaller exports

The United States Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for the harvest of major grain crops in Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year. At the same time, the estimate of possible exports was lowered due to logistics problems in the Black and Azov Seas.

In the August USDA report, the forecast for wheat production in Ukraine was increased by 1.4 million tons compared to the July estimate, to 25.4 million tons. The forecast for its exports, on the contrary, was reduced by 1 million tons, to 13.5 million tons.

The corn harvest estimate was raised from 30 million to 31.8 million tons. At the same time, the export forecast for this crop was lowered from 23 million to 22 million tons.

Grain stocks may increase significantly

The combination of a larger harvest and reduced exports will lead to an accumulation of stocks. USDA expects that wheat ending stocks in Ukraine at the end of the marketing year will grow from the 2.53 million tons projected in July to 4.8 million tons.

Corn stocks may increase even more noticeably - from 2.06 million to 4.86 million tons. This could increase pressure on domestic prices and increase farmers' need for storage capacity.

Exports constrained by risks in the Black Sea

USDA explained the deterioration in the export forecast by logistical disruptions caused by intensified hostilities in the Black and Azov Seas.

A separate report by USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service notes that Russian attacks on civilian vessels and Ukrainian port infrastructure have forced shipowners to reconsider their willingness to work on this route. This has led to a shortage of vessels for shipping agricultural products.

At the same time, Ukraine has not officially closed sea routes and continues to use the ports of Greater Odesa. River and land routes also remain available, but their capacity and transportation costs differ from sea logistics.

Thus, even a better harvest does not guarantee a corresponding increase in the agricultural sector's foreign exchange earnings. Actual export volumes will depend primarily on the security situation and the stability of shipping in the Black Sea.

Based on materials from: USDA WASDE, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service