Russian Oil Captures Record Share of Indian Market

The share of Russian oil in India's total imports in July 2026 reached a record 50.83%. According to trade sources cited by Reuters, Indian refineries received about 2.47 million barrels of crude per day from Russia. Year-on-year, the volume of supplies rose by 62.4%.

Compared with June, the volume of Russian imports fell by about 4.8% after record levels the previous month. However, the decline was insufficient to reduce Russia's share of the Indian market: Moscow retained its position as the largest oil supplier to the country.

India's growing dependence on Russian crude accelerated amid disruptions in supplies from the Middle East. Restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz forced Indian refineries to look more actively for oil that could be delivered via alternative routes. In the second quarter, supplies from Russia and Latin America grew noticeably, while imports from the Middle East fell by about 27%.

Already in June, Russian oil accounted for about half of all Indian imports. According to preliminary data from LSEG and Kpler, supplies then reached roughly 2.7 million barrels per day, compared with 2.13 million barrels in May, according to Kpler. Russia strengthened its advantage over India's traditional suppliers from the Persian Gulf.

Different monitoring systems give somewhat differing estimates of July supplies. For example, Kpler estimated Russian oil imports at about 2.78 million barrels per day and more than half of India's total purchases. The difference is due to methodology and the timing of recording arriving cargoes, but all major estimates point to a record high share for Russia.

Russian oil became especially important for Indian refiners after Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine. European restrictions and the refusal of many Western buyers to take Russian supplies redirected a significant portion of Moscow's exports to Asia. Indian companies took advantage of discounts on Russian oil and sharply increased their purchases.

At the same time, trade terms have changed markedly in recent months. In early July, Russian Urals crude was delivered to India at a discount of more than $10 per barrel to Brent, but by the end of the month the discount had narrowed to $1–2 due to renewed demand growth and concerns about Middle East supplies.

Record Indian purchases are occurring simultaneously with increased US pressure on countries that continue to buy Russian energy. On August 7, the US Senate approved a bill allowing the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. India and China are named among the main potential targets. For the measure to take effect, the bill still needs to pass the House of Representatives.

Thus, India simultaneously benefits from access to large volumes of Russian crude and faces growing foreign trade risks. As long as disruptions in the Middle East persist, Russian oil will remain one of the key sources of supply for Indian refiners.

Based on materials from: Reuters, MarketScreener