Iran ramps up missile production and prepares army for new escalation - WSJ

Iran used the two months after reaching a preliminary agreement with the US not to de-escalate the conflict, but to prepare for a potentially larger war. Tehran is strengthening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accelerating the production of missiles and drones, and preparing allied armed groups in the region for possible escalation, writes The Wall Street Journal, citing Iranian and Arab officials and intelligence data.

On June 17, US President Donald Trump and Iran signed a memorandum that was supposed to create a 60-day window for negotiations. Washington hoped to achieve the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and move to broader agreements, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program. However, in Tehran, hardliners, according to the publication, viewed the pause differently: as a possible attempt by the US and Israel to reduce pressure on the global economy and gain time before a new strike.

As a result, Iran began preparing for a scenario of prolonged confrontation. The IRGC is gaining more influence over the regular armed forces, with veterans of the Iran-Iraq war and security officials with experience in internal crises being appointed to key positions. At the same time, the authorities are expanding counterintelligence structures and increasing the production of missiles and drones.

Iran restores missile forces faster than expected

According to WSJ, damaged Iranian military infrastructure is being restored faster than Israeli officials expected. Tehran has also regained access to some missile bases and, despite previous strikes, retains enough weapons to threaten American forces, shipping, and energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries. This part of the report is separately confirmed by Iran International.

In parallel, the IRGC has increased coordination with allied groups in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. According to Arab intelligence services cited by WSJ, Iranian commanders discussed with them a possible expansion of hostilities. Special attention was paid to the Red Sea area, through which Saudi Arabia is trying to partially bypass transportation problems through the Persian Gulf.

Intelligence data, including intercepted communications, point to the preparation of forces capable of raising the cost of conflict for the US and its allies. In Tehran, there is increasing talk of a transition from a predominantly defensive strategy to offensive operations outside Iran. One Iranian military analyst close to the authorities told WSJ that there is a growing view in the country that the "main war" has not yet begun.

Tehran considers new escalation scenarios

According to WSJ, among the scenarios discussed in Iranian ruling circles are preemptive strikes and expansion of the conflict beyond traditional military confrontation. The publication reports possible sabotage against underwater internet cables in the Persian Gulf, attempts to destabilize countries with large Shiite communities, and even discussions of ground operations against Kuwait. These are options under consideration, not approved operation plans.

At the same time, Iran is also preparing for internal risks. The authorities fear new protests due to the worsening economic situation and American pressure. Therefore, the reorganization of security structures includes expanding internal intelligence networks and strengthening control inside the country.

Meanwhile, the diplomatic channel is formally not closed. Iranian representatives continued negotiations with the US and mediators, but the 60-day period provided by the June memorandum ended without a final agreement. According to WSJ sources, Iran's current leadership assumes that negotiations may turn out to be only a pause before the next stage of confrontation.

Based on materials from: The Wall Street Journal, Ynet, Iran International