Ukraine's agro-exports collapsed by more than half at the beginning of August

Ukraine exported 790.7 thousand tons of agricultural products during August 1–13. This is 57% less than during the analogous 13 days of July, according to Spike Brokers data.

The sharp drop in exports occurs amid problems with sea logistics, which intensified at the end of July and beginning of August. Due to security risks, shipowners reduced calls to Ukrainian Black Sea ports, while the capacity of land routes cannot fully replace sea shipments.

The decline began as early as the beginning of August

First signs of a sharp slowdown were noticeable already after the first six days of the month. According to Spike Brokers, from August 1 to 6, Ukraine exported 312.9 thousand tons of agricultural goods versus 784.5 thousand tons over the same period in July. The physical volume of exports fell by 60.1%.

At the same time, the drop in export revenue was significantly smaller — 38.4%, from $326.9 million to $201.5 million. This was explained by a change in the structure of supplies: the share of bulk grain cargo decreased, while more expensive per ton oils, rapeseed, and processed products increased.

The grain sector was hit especially hard. During the first six days of August, Ukraine exported 93.2 thousand tons of wheat versus 294.9 thousand tons in early July, and corn — only 33.5 thousand tons versus 293.7 thousand tons.

The flow of grain to seaports dropped sharply

During August 1–5, only 40.8 thousand tons of grain were delivered by rail to seaports — 84.3% less than during the same period in July, when the figure was 259.1 thousand tons. At the same time, activity at border crossings and the Danube direction increased somewhat.

Road exports, on the contrary, increased by 11.3% at the beginning of the month — to 59.6 thousand tons. However, Spike Brokers stressed that the throughput capacity of road and land routes is insufficient to compensate for the reduction in large-tonnage sea shipments.

Earlier, Kurs Ukrainy wrote that due to Russian attacks, the capacity of Greater Odessa ports for grain exports had shrunk from about 6 million to 4 million tons per month. Already in July, rail shipments toward Odessa ports were decreasing.

The current statistics for August 1–13 show not only a reduction in the potential throughput capacity of ports but a substantial drop in the actual volume of agricultural exports. At the same time, it is not accurate to attribute the entire 57% drop solely to Russian attacks: seasonality, supply structure, and changes in export routes also affect the dynamics.

Based on materials from: Spike Brokers