Autumn 2027 may become a turning point in the war - NYT

Autumn 2027 may become an important milestone in Russia's war against Ukraine: if Russian troops cannot achieve their goals in Donbas by then, the likelihood of moving to negotiations will increase. This is reported by The New York Times, citing Western officials and analysts.

The publication notes that Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his aspiration to establish full Russian control over Donbas. At the same time, some of the NYT's interlocutors view autumn of next year as a moment after which further continuation of the war under current conditions may become less attractive for Moscow.

"If the Russians cannot do this by autumn 2027, negotiations will be more likely", the article says.

At the same time, autumn 2027 is not a deadline for the seizure of Donbas announced by Putin. It concerns the assessment of Western officials and analysts regarding how long Russia may continue trying to achieve its maximalist territorial goals by military means.

The West expects intensification of strikes this winter

According to The New York Times, Western countries are also preparing for the possibility that Russia may significantly intensify strikes on Ukraine this coming winter. This could be part of Moscow's attempts to increase military and economic pressure on Kyiv before the next stage of the war.

Concerns are growing against the backdrop of Russia's buildup of missile potential and continued strikes on Ukrainian energy, industrial and other critical infrastructure.

European countries are simultaneously trying to influence the possible negotiation process more actively. One of the reasons is the fear that diplomatic contacts between Washington and Moscow may take place without sufficiently taking into account the position of Ukraine and its European allies.

Earlier, Current Ukraine reported that Putin continues to insist on establishing control over the entire Donetsk region. According to Bloomberg, the Russian military leadership previously reported the possibility of achieving this goal by the end of 2026, but even some Russian military considered such a forecast unrealistic and allowed for the continuation of fighting for the region in 2027.

Thus, the assessment regarding autumn 2027 concerns not a deadline set by the Kremlin, but a possible moment when the absence of a decisive result at the front may increase the parties' interest in a diplomatic settlement.

Based on materials from: The New York Times