GUR assesses threat of new Russian offensive on Kyiv region and names risk for 2027

Ukrainian military intelligence currently sees no signs of Russia preparing a new offensive from the northern direction - on Kyiv or Chernihiv regions. The Russian Federation currently lacks the necessary grouping of troops and other indicators that would indicate preparation for such an operation.

Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, said this in an interview, as reported by the journalist of the publication "RBC-Ukraine" Uliana Bezpalko.

According to the Major General, the possibility of offensive actions from the North theoretically remains, but the current situation in this direction does not indicate preparation of the Russian command for a large-scale operation.

"Theoretically yes, but in practice there are no conditions, indicators that would show they are ready for this operation, there are no troops for this", - stated Skibitskyi.

The GUR proceeds from the experience of previous deployment of Russian forces: to create a combat-ready strike group, Moscow needs a long time for replenishment, preparation and coordination of units.

Skibitskyi reminded that after the start of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation in the second half of October 2022, the first trained units massively appeared on the front only at the end of the year and in January 2023.

According to the GUR representative, if Russia manages to significantly increase the number of trained troops in the coming months, a powerful new strike group could theoretically be formed closer to February 2027.

At the same time, intelligence does not claim that Russia is already planning an offensive exactly for this period. It is about a possible timeframe during which the Russian command, under certain conditions, can create sufficient forces for a large-scale offensive operation.

Thus, the GUR currently does not record a direct threat of a new major Russian offensive from the North. Ukrainian intelligence continues to monitor the number of troops, their movement and other signs that could indicate preparation for an operation in the Kyiv or Chernihiv directions.