Polish Foreign Ministry assessed Ukrainians' contribution to economy: they created over 120 thousand businesses
The presence of Ukrainian refugees increased Poland's real GDP in 2024 by approximately 2.7%, and their contribution to the volume of the Polish economy is estimated at 98.7 billion zlotys. At the same time, the employment rate among all adult Ukrainians living in the country reached 78%.
Such data was published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland on the occasion of Ukraine's Independence Day. The ministry emphasized that Ukrainians who have found refuge in Poland not only receive protection but also actively participate in the development of its economy.
"Behind the statistics are real stories of innovation and business development. We are not just neighbors - we are building a stronger future together", - stated the Polish Foreign Ministry.
Almost 100 billion zlotys of additional GDP
The 2.7% figure published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is based on a Deloitte study conducted for the UNHCR. Analysts compared the actual development of the Polish economy with a scenario in which Ukrainian refugees would not have been on the Polish labor market.
According to Deloitte's calculations, in that case, Poland's real GDP in 2024 would have been approximately 2.7%, or 98.7 billion zlotys, lower. For comparison, in 2022 the effect was estimated at 1.5% of GDP, and in 2023 - at 2.3%.
Analysts explain the growth in contribution primarily by the rapid integration of Ukrainians into the labor market. They increased the labor supply as employees and entrepreneurs, while supporting domestic demand as consumers.
The indirect effect also proved important. The Polish economy adapted to the influx of workers thanks to greater specialization and productivity. Researchers found no evidence that the arrival of Ukrainian refugees led to increased unemployment among Poles or a decrease in their real wages.
Polish budget revenues also increased
The effect of Ukrainian refugees also affected public finances. According to Deloitte's estimate, in 2024 their presence increased the revenues of the general government sector by approximately 2.94%, or 47 billion zlotys.
The calculations took into account not only the income tax of Ukrainians themselves but also VAT and excise taxes from their consumption, social and health contributions, as well as taxes of companies whose revenues increased thanks to additional workers and customers.
According to researchers' forecast, in the long term the economic effect may increase even more. By 2030, the presence of Ukrainian refugees is capable of providing the Polish economy with about 3.2% of additional GDP, in particular thanks to improved language skills, professional adaptation, and business investments.
78% of Ukrainians in Poland are working
The Polish Foreign Ministry also reported that the employment rate among Ukrainians in the country in 2024 stood at 78%. This indicator corresponds to a study by the National Bank of Poland, which covered adult citizens of Ukraine who arrived both after the start of the full-scale war and earlier.
At the same time, among specifically the refugees who arrived after the start of the full-scale invasion, Deloitte and UNHCR estimated employment in 2024 at 69%. For comparison, a year earlier it was 61%. Among Polish citizens of the corresponding working-age group, the indicator was estimated at about 75%.
One remaining problem is that Ukrainians work below their qualification level. About 40% of refugees have higher education, but only 12% work in positions that require it. According to Deloitte's estimate, even a partial removal of language and professional barriers could bring the Polish economy at least an additional 6 billion zlotys per year.
Ukrainians are also increasingly active in entrepreneurship. According to Polish authorities, since 2022, citizens of Ukraine have created over 120,000 businesses in Poland. The government emphasizes that these companies not only provide employment for their founders but also create jobs and pay taxes in Poland.
Based on materials from: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, UNHCR and Deloitte, National Bank of Poland
