Italy sees record low births: why demographics are becoming an economic problem
Italy is having fewer and fewer children, and the consequences of this process are already going far beyond family policy. In 2025, only 355 thousand children were born in the country — the minimum for the entire post-war period. The average number of children per woman fell to a historic low of 1.14.
Now Istat has shown what this trend could turn into for the economy. According to the latest demographic forecast, by 2050 Italy could lose almost 7 million residents aged 15 to 64, while every third resident will be over 65.
In other words, the problem of low birth rates is gradually turning into a problem of workers, taxes, pensions, healthcare, and the economy's ability to grow at all.
355 thousand children against 652 thousand deaths
The demographic gap in Italy is already enormous.
In 2025, about 355 thousand children were born in the country, which is 3.9% less than the year before. During the same period, approximately 652 thousand people died.
The natural population decline was about 296 thousand people.
The decline continues in 2026. In the first five months, Istat registered about 137 thousand births — another 0.9% less than in the same period last year.
That is, even after reaching a historic low, signs of a stable turnaround have not yet appeared.
Italian women have on average 1.14 children
For simple population replacement in a developed country, about 2.1 children per woman are usually required.
Italy has been significantly below this level for many years. In 2024, the total fertility rate was 1.18, and in 2025 it fell to 1.14 children per woman.
At the same time, the average age of mothers at childbirth rose to 32.7 years.
But Italy has another problem that even a rapid increase in the birth rate cannot fix.
The generations of potential parents have already become much smaller.
Istat gives a telling example: even if Italy's birth rate suddenly rose to the level of France, the number of births would still remain noticeably lower than in France. The reason is that Italy already has fewer women and men of reproductive age.
By 2050 the population could shrink to 55 million
On August 31, Istat published updated long-term population projections.
According to the median scenario:
- at the beginning of 2025, Italy had about 58.9 million inhabitants;
- in 2030 there will be about 58.7 million;
- by 2050 — approximately 55 million;
- by 2080 — about 45.8 million.
Thus, by mid-century the country could lose almost 4 million residents.
Istat emphasizes that the exact figures of a long-term forecast are inevitably uncertain. But the direction is virtually unquestionable: in all main scenarios, the country's population is shrinking.
The most important change is not the number of people, but their age
For the economy, it is far more important who exactly will make up these 55 million residents.
Today, about 63.4% of Italy's population is aged 15 to 64. By 2050, their share could fall to 55.3%.
In absolute numbers, this means almost 7 million fewer people of working age.
Simultaneously, the share of the population over 65 will rise from 24.7% to about 34.5%.
The very old group will grow especially quickly. Today, people over 85 make up about 4.1% of the population, but by 2050 their share will exceed 7%.
That is, Italy will simultaneously need more workers and more resources for pensions, healthcare, and elderly care.
Why fewer children today means a shortage of workers tomorrow
Demographic changes operate with a long delay.
A child not born in 2026 does not disappear from the labor market today. But in 20–25 years, that is one less potential employee, entrepreneur, and taxpayer.
When this happens not with thousands but with entire generations, the whole economy changes.
Fewer people of working age means:
- fewer potential workers;
- tougher competition among companies for staff;
- difficulties finding workers in industry, construction, healthcare, and elderly care;
- fewer taxpayers and social contribution payers;
- weaker potential economic growth.
This problem is especially noticeable in Italy, where the aging of the workforce is already advancing very quickly.
The average age of an employed person in the country has reached 45.6 years — 4.6 years more than in 2007.
Even growth in employment will not fully solve the problem
Italy has a significant labor reserve.
Especially large is the gap between men and women. In 2025, about 75.6% of men aged 15–64 were economically active, but only 57.8% of women.
Istat assumes that by 2050 female economic activity could rise to 64.2%.
The elderly will also stay longer in the labor market.
Currently, among the 65–74 age group about 11.8% are economically active. By 2050 the figure could increase to 16.5%, partly due to longer life expectancy and gradual increase in the retirement age.
However, even these changes are not enough.
Under the baseline scenario, the number of economically active Italians aged 15–64 will still decline by about 3.4 million people, or 13.6%, by 2050.
The pension system faces increasingly difficult arithmetic
The most obvious economic risk is related to pensions.
Most of Italy's pension system operates on the principle that today's workers finance the payments to current pensioners through their contributions.
If the number of workers becomes relatively smaller and the number of pensioners larger, the ratio gradually worsens.
According to the OECD, Italy's public spending on pensions already amounts to about 16% of GDP — one of the highest among developed countries.
The organization warns that the shrinking working-age population simultaneously reduces the pension contribution base and slows GDP growth.
Therefore, Italy will have to seek a combination of several solutions at once: increase employment, raise labor productivity, keep people in the labor market longer, and control the growth of pension spending.
Aging will increase costs outside pensions too
An increasing number of elderly people means not only more pensioners.
The need for healthcare, home care, nursing homes, and social assistance grows.
According to the new Istat forecast, the number of people living alone will rise from about 10 million today to 11.6 million in 2050.
The number of lonely elderly people will grow especially fast. By mid-century, about 6.6 million people over 65 could live alone.
For the state and municipalities, this means a growing demand for services exactly at the moment when the number of workers able to provide and finance these services is shrinking.
Can migration solve the problem?
Without migration, Italy's population would be shrinking even faster.
In 2025, about 440 thousand people arrived in the country, while about 144 thousand left abroad. The net migration was about 296 thousand people — almost the same as the country's natural population loss.
As a result, the total population has been changing relatively slowly so far.
However, Istat predicts that even sustained positive migration will not be enough to fully compensate for the long-term natural decline.
Therefore, migration can mitigate the consequences, but by itself does not reverse the demographic structure.
The economic problem starts even before a child is born
The Italian debate about the birth rate increasingly hinges not only on the desire to have children.
Research shows a notable gap between the desired and actual number of children.
Families face the cost of housing, unstable employment for young people, late attainment of stable income, a lack of kindergartens, and difficulties combining motherhood with work.
The situation with female employment is telling: in 2025, more than 3 million women of working age in Italy remained economically inactive for family reasons.
This creates a kind of vicious circle. The economy needs more working women to compensate for demographic decline, but the lack of childcare infrastructure simultaneously makes combining work and motherhood harder.
Why demographics become a business problem
For companies, the consequences of the low birth rate manifest well before 2050.
Generations entering the labor market today are much smaller than those now approaching retirement age.
This means businesses will have to compete more aggressively for young professionals, invest more in automation and employee training, and seek staff abroad.
Particularly sensitive will be sectors where labor is hard to automate: healthcare, care, hotels and restaurants, construction, transport, and parts of industry.
Therefore, the demographic decline can simultaneously increase the cost of labor and limit companies' ability to expand.
Italy is not disappearing, but its economic model must change
The demographic forecast does not mean that Italy's economy must inevitably shrink along with the population.
Fewer workers can be partially compensated by higher productivity, automation, greater employment of women and the elderly, migration, and better education.
But time is running out.
The record low of 355 thousand births matters not only because there are fewer children in Italy. It shows how rapidly the base of the economy is shrinking — the economy that in a few decades will have to support a much larger elderly population.
And that is why the birth rate in Italy is gradually ceasing to be only a social issue and becoming one of the key long-term questions for the labor market, business, and public finances.
