GUR: Russia may have enough resources for war until 2028

The Russian economy is significantly weaker than at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but Moscow still has enough resources to continue the war against Ukraine. The GUR does not rule out that this stock may be enough for both 2027 and 2028.

This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleg Ivashchenko in an interview with Ukrinform.

According to him, among the main problems of the Russian economy now are a shortage of labor resources, an increasing federal budget deficit, and a worsening situation in the banking system.

However, these problems are not yet enough to deprive the Kremlin of the ability to finance the war.

"We do not rule out that this resource will be enough for both 2027 and 2028", - stated Ivashchenko.

GUR hopes for tightening sanctions

According to the assessment of the head of military intelligence, Russia's ability to continue the war can be reduced only through joint work of Ukraine and its partners, in particular by tightening sanctions pressure.

The GUR knows the countries and channels through which electronic components, machine tools, special chemicals and other equipment necessary for the Russian military-industrial complex continue to reach Russia.

To bypass restrictions, a significant number of intermediary companies are created to ensure the supply of products and technologies that ultimately end up in the Russian war machine.

Strikes on the Russian rear increase Moscow's costs

Ivashchenko also stated that Ukrainian long-range strikes force Russia to spend additional resources on rebuilding production, restructuring logistics and redeploying air defense systems.

In his assessment, such operations already affect Russia's economic capabilities and increase the cost of continuing the war. The GUR estimates the current Russian federal budget deficit at about $82 billion.

Ukrainian intelligence believes that simultaneous tightening of sanctions, restriction of Russia's access to Western technologies, and strikes on facilities related to military production and logistics should gradually reduce the Kremlin's resource for waging war.

However, the GUR's assessment does not mean a forecast that the war will necessarily last until 2028. It refers specifically to the potential stock of economic and financial resources of Russia under current conditions.