Head of Defence Intelligence assesses threat from Belarus and announces units with 'Oreshnik'

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine currently does not see signs of Belarus preparing for direct entry into the war against Ukraine and assesses the level of military threat from the Belarusian direction as low. At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence is recording on the territory of Belarus units of the Russian 101st Missile Brigade, which is armed with the medium-range complex "Oreshnik".

This was stated by the Head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Oleh Ivashchenko, in an interview with Ukrinform.

According to him, Ukrainian intelligence continues to monitor Moscow's attempts to draw Belarus deeper into the war. The Russian leadership seeks to use Belarusian territory and military resources to expand its capabilities for conducting combat operations against Ukraine.

At the same time, currently the Defence Intelligence does not record Minsk's preparation for direct entry into the war.

"As of today, there are no signs of Belarus preparing to enter the war against Ukraine; the level of military threat to our state from the Belarusian direction is assessed as low", - Ivashchenko stated.

Defence Intelligence announced a Russian missile brigade

Despite the low assessment of the direct threat, intelligence draws attention to the Russian military presence in Belarus.

According to Ivashchenko, units of the 101st Missile Brigade of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are stationed on Belarusian territory. This formation is armed with the Russian medium-range missile complex "Oreshnik".

At the same time, the head of the Defence Intelligence did not specify the number of deployed units, their composition, or locations. Also, from his words it does not follow that the "Oreshnik" complexes themselves are necessarily already on combat duty in Belarus.

Belarusian territory is used for guiding Shahed

Another risk cited by the Defence Intelligence is the use of Belarusian territory to support Russian drone strikes.

According to intelligence data, Belarus has granted permission for the deployment of radio signal repeaters used for guiding Russian strike drones of the Shahed type at Ukrainian civilian targets and critical infrastructure.

Ivashchenko added that if official Minsk did not grant such permission, in his opinion, it would mean that the Belarusian authorities have lost control over part of the Russian military activity on their own territory. 

Thus, the Defence Intelligence currently does not expect direct entry of the Belarusian army into the war, but believes that Russia continues to use the country's territory to support its military operations against Ukraine.