Poland for the first time estimated economic losses from Russia's war against Ukraine

Poland's Central Statistical Office (GUS) for the first time estimated the scale of losses to the Polish economy related to Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine. For 2022-2025, the lost GDP value is estimated at 490.1 billion zlotys—about 3.5% of the country's total GDP for this period.

Preliminary results of the experimental study were presented by GUS head Marek Cierpiał-Wolan during the Economic Forum in Karpacz. It is not only about the money Poland directly spent on supporting Ukraine and Ukrainians, but a broader assessment of the economic consequences of the Russian invasion.

The greatest losses, according to the statistical office's assessment, were suffered by Polish households—292.1 billion zlotys. Enterprise sector losses amounted to 126 billion zlotys, and state and local government sectors—another 72 billion zlotys.

GUS explained that the calculations took into account the labor market situation, changes in the economy and demographics, the scale of assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees, as well as the impact of war and migration on the financial situation of households and businesses. Separately, they assessed the loss of purchasing power of the population due to inflation and the slowdown in real wage growth after the start of the full-scale war.

According to GUS, household savings losses due to elevated inflation alone amounted to about 70 billion zlotys. At the same time, Poland's additional national defense spending in 2022-2025 is estimated at 154.2 billion zlotys, and expenses from the Aid Fund at 46.7 billion zlotys.

Statisticians also constructed a scenario of what the Polish economy could have been without Russian aggression. According to this assessment, the economic shock led to a reduction in gross value added by 426.5 billion zlotys compared to a scenario without a full-scale war.

Construction was one of the most affected sectors. GUS estimated the loss of gross value added in the sector at 120.9 billion zlotys. Among the reasons cited are the outflow of some workers after the war began and a sharp rise in the prices of construction materials, including steel, cement, glass, asphalt and non-ferrous metals.

GUS emphasizes that this is an economic assessment of the consequences of the war for a third country, not the sum of Poland's direct expenses on Ukraine. The study is intended to demonstrate a possible approach to calculating losses of countries that themselves have not experienced invasion but bear the economic consequences of Russian aggression.

Source: Rzeczpospolita, Money.pl, Puls Biznesu