Russia for the first time in two decades outperformed Ukraine in sunflower oil exports

Ukraine for the first time in 20 seasons lost its position as the world's largest sunflower oil exporter following the 2025/2026 marketing year. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russia exported 4.2 million tons of products against 4.036 million tons from Ukraine.

This is evidenced by the data from the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report published in September.

Thus, Russia outpaced Ukraine by about 164 thousand tons. Just in the 2024/2025 season Ukraine notably held the first place: its exports were estimated at 4.744 million tons, while Russia's stood at 4.2 million tons.

Over the past year Ukrainian sunflower oil supplies to foreign markets decreased by approximately 15%, or more than 700 thousand tons. Meanwhile, the estimate of Russian exports remained at the previous season's level.

As a result, Ukraine's share in world sunflower oil exports decreased from about 35% to 30%. Russia's share, on the contrary, exceeded 31%.

The change in rankings occurred amid a reduction in Ukrainian production. USDA estimates sunflower oil output in Ukraine in the 2025/2026 season at 4.515 million tons, compared to 5.29 million tons in the previous season. In Russia, production over the same period, on the contrary, increased from 6.732 million to 6.897 million tons.

USDA notes that the last two seasons for the Black Sea region have been characterized by lower-than-average yields. This led to a reduction in sunflower harvests and oil supply. At the same time, in the new season, the agency expects a production recovery thanks to increased harvests.

However, USDA does not yet forecast a return of the first place to Ukraine. In the 2026/2027 season, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are expected to recover to 5 million tons, but Russia may increase supplies to 5.1 million tons.

At the same time, Ukraine's export growth will be faster: about 24% against about 21% in Russia. The gap between the two countries is forecast to narrow to about 100 thousand tons.

USDA estimates global sunflower oil exports in the 2025/2026 season at 13.51 million tons. In the next season, the figure could grow to almost 16 million tons amid recovery of supply from the Black Sea region.

Based on: USDA