Pidlasy: More than UAH 130 billion of planned revenues in the 2027 budget are in question
The draft state budget of Ukraine for 2027 includes about UAH 131 billion in revenues from tax and other decisions that the parliament has not yet adopted or the president has not signed. At the same time, Ukraine's uncovered need for external financing next year is estimated at $32.6 billion, and if the current intensity of the war is maintained, the budget will almost certainly need to be revised during the year.
This was stated by the head of the parliamentary Budget Committee, Roksolana Pidlasy, in the podcast "Chronicles of the Economy".
According to her, among the UAH 131 billion of revenues that currently depend on future decisions are a potential increase in the VAT rate by 1 percentage point, an increase in excise duties on fuel by 4 percentage points, the extension of the increased 50% tax rate on bank profits, as well as revenues from taxation of digital platforms and international parcels.
"The Ministry of Finance is taking a bit of a risk this year. They have included 131 billion from revenues that have not yet been voted on or signed", said Pidlasy.
Separately, she drew attention to the idea of raising VAT by 1 percentage point, the revenues from which are proposed to be directed to a special fund to finance a new business support program.
According to Pidlasy, as of the time of recording the conversation, there was no draft law on such a VAT increase yet. She also doubts that this idea will receive sufficient support from the Verkhovna Rada.
"Personally, I don't think that the parliament will support this idea", noted the head of the budget committee, reminding that deputies had previously not supported a VAT increase even when the additional funds were proposed to be directed directly to military needs.
For over UAH 8 trillion in expenditures, there is UAH 3.7 trillion in own resources
Pidlasy noted that when assessing the state of the budget, one should distinguish between budget expenditures and all state spending. The latter includes direct budget expenditures, lending, and repayment of public debt.
According to her, total spending in 2027 is planned at slightly over UAH 8 trillion – approximately four times more than before the full-scale invasion.
At the same time, Ukraine's own resource, which Pidlasy defines as revenues excluding international grants, domestic borrowings through government bonds, and privatization, is about UAH 3.7 trillion.
Thus, the gap reaches about UAH 4.3 trillion and must be covered by international financing.
These figures do not contradict the Ministry of Finance's published figure of UAH 7.272 trillion in state budget expenditures: Pidlasy operates with a broader indicator of total spending, which also includes public debt repayment and other operations. The Ministry of Finance officially estimates Ukraine's total need for international support in 2027 at $52.6 billion.
Another $32.6 billion needs to be found
According to Pidlasy, of the external financing needed for next year, about $20 billion has been confirmed so far – primarily from the European Union, as well as from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The remainder – $32.6 billion – is still uncovered. The same preliminary estimate was also publicly named earlier by Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko.
Pidlasy named bilateral agreements on direct budget support with G7 governments as one of the most realistic ways to close this gap.
According to her, Ukraine already has such experience: in the first years of the full-scale invasion, direct budget assistance was provided, in particular, by Canada and Japan.
At the same time, the government officially expects in 2027 funding from the European Union, G7 countries within the ERA mechanism, the IMF, the World Bank, the United Kingdom, and other partners.
The budget will almost certainly need to be amended
Pidlasy also estimated a 90% probability that during 2027 the parliament will need to make changes to the state budget if the active phase of the war and the intensity of hostilities remain at the current level.
The reason is that the budget has to be formed not based on all the actual needs of the state and the Defense Forces, but in view of the actually available financial resources.
"Unfortunately, we draw up the state budget based on available resources, not on needs, because defense needs exceed our capabilities", she explained.
The government approved the draft 2027 state budget on September 15. The Ministry of Finance included UAH 7.272 trillion in expenditures, of which UAH 4.885 trillion is planned for security and defense. The draft has already been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada.
Based on materials: "Chronicles of the Economy", Ministry of Finance of Ukraine
