NBU sharply recalculates Ukraine's balance of payments: the most noticeable adjustment falls on 2025
The National Bank revised the balance of payments statistics of Ukraine for 2020–2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The most notable adjustment fell on 2025: the negative current account balance decreased by $4.6 billion immediately after the data were refined.
The NBU published new data on September 18. The main reason for the recalculation was not a sudden change in foreign trade or the appearance of additional billions of dollars, but updated information from the State Customs Service on goods sent through international postal and express shipments.
The National Bank reported that when using this information for external sector statistics, it discovered discrepancies and initiated an additional check. Customs identified certain inaccuracies related, among other things, to changes in declaration procedures for international shipments, the transition to electronic declaration, and the use of different information resources.
After the verification, the State Customs Service generated refined data on the customs clearance of such goods and transferred them to the National Bank. On this basis, the regulator recalculated the relevant balance of payments indicators.
The largest effect of the revision was for 2025. The negative current account balance was reduced by $4.6 billion. For the first quarter of 2026, its estimate was lowered by another $1.2 billion.
The adjustments also affected previous years, although their scale was significantly smaller. The NBU reduced the negative current account balance:
for 2020 — by $0.6 billion;
for 2021 — by $0.8 billion;
for 2022 — by $0.1 billion;
for 2023 — by $0.3 billion;
for 2024 — by $1 billion;
for 2025 — by $4.6 billion.
For 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, the National Bank took into account not only the refined customs statistics. The regulator also obtained new reporting data on the volumes of international technical assistance, foreign trade in services, and private remittances.
It is important that the reduction in the deficit by $4.6 billion does not mean that Ukraine unexpectedly received this amount or that additional funds became available to the state. This is a retrospective revision of statistics: after obtaining more accurate information, the NBU reassessed operations that had already occurred.
The current account is one of the key components of the balance of payments. It reflects foreign trade in goods and services, primary income, and current transfers. Therefore, its indicators are used to assess external economic imbalances and the country's dependence on external inflows.
The current revision is especially interesting against the background of the adjustment that the NBU carried out in the spring. In March, the regulator, on the contrary, increased the estimate of the current account deficit for 2025 by $2.2 billion.
At that time, the reason was different changes: the NBU improved the methodology for accounting for services, expanded the information base, and obtained new reporting data. In particular, the statistics more fully included electronic services that foreign companies provide to individuals in Ukraine, including computer, advertising, and audiovisual services.
Thus, the March and September revisions do not contradict each other. They are based on different sets of new information: in the spring, statistics showed a larger deficit due to more complete accounting of a range of services and other operations, and now the refinement of customs and reporting data significantly reduced its estimate.
Such adjustments are normal for financial statistics: the latest periods are initially calculated on the basis of available information, and then revised as more complete administrative and reporting data arrive. In this case, what is unusual is the scale of the change — $4.6 billion for 2025 alone.
The NBU reported that the updated time series for 2023–2025 have already been published in external sector statistics. The recalculation provides a more accurate picture of Ukraine's external operations, but does not in itself mean an improvement in the economy by the same amount, and does not automatically change the volume of international reserves, budget revenues, or external financing available to Ukraine.
