When the dollar may rise: the worst-case scenario for the hryvnia until the end of 2026
The National Bank of Ukraine has been selling more than $1 billion weekly for 10 consecutive weeks to keep the dollar exchange rate at around 44.7 UAH. Since the beginning of 2026, the regulator has sold $36.29 billion on the currency market — more than in the entire 2025.
Why the hryvnia came under threat
Sharp drop in exports: Currency inflow is shrinking every month. Merchandise exports decreased from $3.5 billion in June to $3.1 billion in July and $2.5 billion in August.
Huge trade deficit: Over the first eight months of 2026, Ukraine bought almost $40 billion more foreign goods than it sold of its own.
Logistics problems: In August, alternative routes managed to export about 1.7 million tons of agricultural products — only a third of the potential monthly volume.
What is saving the exchange rate right now
Large-scale NBU interventions are possible thanks to international aid. At the beginning of September, Ukraine's reserves stood at $48.66 billion. Despite falling 5% in August, September tranches (including €3.3 billion from the European Commission) restored the reserve balance. The NBU effectively converts Western aid into hryvnia, covering the deficit of businesses and the population.
Stress scenario: when to expect noticeable devaluation
The official NBU regime (managed flexibility) does not require the regulator to hold the 44.7 UAH rate at any cost. If exports remain weak, imports high, and Western aid begins arriving with delays, the NBU will have to save reserves and allow the hryvnia to weaken.
| Period | Economic conditions | Possible dollar exchange rate |
| September–October | Aid arrives on schedule, the NBU continues large interventions | Current levels (around 44.7–45.0 UAH) |
| November–December | Exports do not recover, tranches are delayed, NBU interventions reach $5–6 billion per month | 47–49 UAH/$ |
| January–March 2027 | Problems with logistics and external financing persist | 49–52 UAH/$ |
The calculations reflect a stress scenario, not an official forecast. The regulator will smooth out sharp jumps, preventing a “today 45 — tomorrow 55” scenario.
Markers of deteriorating situation
Three factors will signal that the hryvnia will start to fall: continuation of NBU interventions at a level above $1.3–1.5 billion per week, the economy's inability to restore exports to at least $3 billion per month, and a decline in gold and foreign currency reserves even in months when international tranches arrive. If these conditions coincide, the National Bank will most likely use moderate weakening of the national currency as a shock absorber for the economy.
