Oil resumed growth after four days of decline

World oil prices on September 22 turned to growth after four consecutive sessions in the red. Brent rose to about $101-102 per barrel after losing almost 8% over the previous four trading days.

The main factors for the market remain the risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East and simultaneous expectations of diplomatic steps that could ease tensions around the US-Iran war.

According to Bloomberg, market participants are watching the UN General Assembly in New York, where US President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak on September 22 and potentially could meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The results of possible contacts could significantly influence expectations regarding further oil supplies from the region. Trading Economics also names diplomatic prospects as one of the key factors in recent Brent fluctuations.

At the same time, risks to physical supplies remain high. Bloomberg reports a new incident with a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz area, through which a significant portion of the world's maritime oil exports passes.

Saudi Arabia in recent days has increased shipments through the Persian Gulf after problems with a key pipeline leading to the Red Sea. According to Trading Economics, through the Strait of Hormuz the country has recently been moving about 2.9 million barrels of oil per day.

An additional risk to supply arose in Libya. According to Bloomberg, production at the country's largest oil field, Sharara, has fallen by more than half after an armed group blocked a pipeline to the Zawiya export terminal. Production fell to about 127,000 barrels per day.

Thus, after the sharp fall, the oil market finds itself between two opposing factors: the risk of new supply disruptions and expectations that diplomatic contacts could reduce tensions in the Middle East.

Based on materials from: Bloomberg, Trading Economics