EBRD downgrades Ukraine's economic growth forecast for 2026
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2026 to 2.2%. In February, the bank expected Ukraine's GDP to grow by 2.5%.
This is stated in the new forecast of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The EBRD explained the forecast revision by the consequences of the ongoing war. Russian attacks continue to disrupt production, energy, and logistics, and the labor shortage is limiting enterprises' ability to increase output.
An additional factor was high global energy prices. More expensive energy imports increase costs for Ukrainian businesses and households and create new inflationary pressure.
According to EBRD estimates, Ukraine's real GDP grew by only 1.8% in 2025. Economic activity was constrained by a shortage of workers, regular power outages, and logistics problems due to Russian strikes.
Despite this, the bank notes that Ukraine has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability thanks to significant volumes of external financing. For 2026-2027, more than €110 billion in international financial support has already been announced.
At the same time, fiscal needs remain very high. The general government deficit excluding grants amounted to 23.6% of GDP in 2025, and the EBRD expects it to be around 19.3% of GDP in 2026. This is primarily due to large expenditures on defense and social support.
The EBRD left its forecast for 2027 unchanged - the bank expects Ukraine's economic growth to accelerate to 4%. However, this scenario assumes a de-escalation of hostilities and the start of larger-scale post-war reconstruction.
The bank emphasizes that the prospects for Ukraine's economy remain highly dependent on the course of the war, the state of the energy system, and the continued receipt of international financial assistance.
Overall, the EBRD also downgraded its forecast for the economies of the countries where the bank operates. Among the main risks, it cites high energy prices, disruptions in global trade and supply chains, and persistent inflation.
