Washington again threatens to leave the International Energy Agency
The United States may withdraw from the International Energy Agency (IEA) if the organization does not change its approach to energy and climate forecasts. Washington has been putting pressure on the agency for more than a year, demanding more attention on energy security and the role of traditional energy sources.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on September 23 that Washington sees two possible scenarios - reforming the IEA or the US withdrawing from the organization. Wright himself prefers the first option and believes the agency should focus on its core mission rather than on scenarios that the American administration considers politicized. The minister's new statement was reported by Reuters. The US provides about a quarter of the agency's funding.
This is not the first such threat. Back in July 2025, Wright told Bloomberg that the US would push for changes to the agency's work or leave it. At that time, Washington's main complaint was the IEA's long-term forecasts, which the Donald Trump administration considered too oriented towards a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.
In February 2026, the conflict escalated. Ahead of the IEA ministerial meeting in Paris, Wright said that the US is still not satisfied with the changes in the agency and expects reforms to be completed if the organization wants to keep the country among its long-term members. This was reported by Bloomberg at the time.
Washington, in particular, criticized the modeling of a net-zero emissions scenario by 2050. Wright also publicly disagreed with IEA assessments of future oil demand. In June 2025, he called the forecast of global oil demand growth stopping already in the current decade unfounded.
Under this pressure, the IEA changed the structure of its main annual report, the World Energy Outlook. In 2025, the agency brought back the Current Policies Scenario - a scenario that considers only already actually implemented laws and measures, not future political promises. Previously, this scenario had not been published since 2020.
Results under this approach differ significantly from rapid decarbonization scenarios. According to the IEA's own estimate, under the Current Policies Scenario global oil demand does not peak, but continues to increase and by 2050 reaches about 113 million barrels per day. Natural gas demand also continues to grow. At the same time, the IEA emphasizes that its scenarios are not forecasts but demonstrate the consequences of various policy options.
US pressure has already affected the agency's agenda. According to E&E News by POLITICO, after the February 2026 ministerial meeting, among the IEA's main work areas, special emphasis was placed on energy security, power system resilience, critical minerals, and energy affordability. At the same time, most member countries continued to insist on the importance of the energy transition and combating climate change. This is also confirmed by the official outcome of the IEA meeting.
Thus, Washington's current threat is a continuation of the conflict that has been going on at least since 2025. The IEA has already partially changed its set of scenarios and placed more emphasis on energy security, but the US administration considers these steps insufficient.
