Oil falls after increased supplies through Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices remained under pressure on Friday, August 14, following a significant drop the day before. Brent was trading near $87 a barrel after falling 2.2% on Thursday, while U.S. WTI stood around $81. The market is reacting to a gradual increase in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, although shipping risks remain high.
U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said that up to 9 million barrels of oil per day could now pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the capabilities of American military vessels to escort ships are growing, allowing for a gradual ramp-up of flows from the Persian Gulf.
Meanwhile, shipping remains hazardous. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the state oil company of the UAE, reported attacks on two more of its vessels on the evening of August 13. Despite this, ADNOC remains among the most active exporters managing to ship oil out of the region.
Because of the threat of strikes, more and more tankers are transiting strategic routes with their automatic identification system—AIS—turned off. AIS transponders transmit a vessel's coordinates, course, and speed, so switching them off makes it harder to track a tanker and may reduce the risk of a targeted attack.
According to Signal Ocean data cited by Bloomberg, approximately 62% of tankers carrying crude and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz with AIS switched off between July 14 and early August. Some vessels remain "invisible" to open tracking systems for a week or longer. Tankers adopt similar tactics when transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Despite the current decline, oil is heading to end the week in positive territory. Since the start of 2026, prices have risen more than 40% amid the war with Iran that has been ongoing since late February, supply disruptions, and risks to key shipping lanes.
Futures are additionally supported by expectations of a supply deficit. The International Energy Agency this week worsened its forecast for the oil market balance and expects a larger supply shortfall in the current quarter. The agency estimates that the deficit for 2026 as a whole could be the largest in five years.
At the same time, the next move in prices will depend largely on how reliably tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran–Oman talks on fully restoring shipping have yet to yield a significant breakthrough, so even with rising physical supplies the market continues to price a substantial geopolitical premium into oil.
