Strikes on Novorossiysk collapse prices for Russian wheat
Prices for grain in Russia continued to fall sharply amid disruptions to maritime exports. During the week of August 10–16, wheat prices dipped 2–3% depending on class, and year-on-year the price of fourth-class wheat has already dropped 24% – to its lowest since May 2024. Analysts link the latest wave of declines to the shutdown of grain terminals in Novorossiysk following strikes on the port.
According to SovEcon calculations, the average price of third-class wheat last week fell 2.8%, to 11.5 thousand rubles per tonne. Fourth class fell 3.1%, to 11 thousand rubles, fifth – 2%, to 10 thousand rubles. Barley lost 5.6% immediately and cost on average 9.7 thousand rubles per tonne.
This 24% drop is not only a result of recent strikes: it is the yearly price change. SovEcon director Andrei Sizov, however, explains exactly the sharp weekly decline as a market reaction to problems with export logistics. After halting grain purchases, grain started to build up, port elevators are filling up, and some farmers are delaying selling, deeming current prices too low.
Problems arose on several routes at once
The strike on August 12 damaged two major grain terminals in Novorossiysk. The Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant, which exported 6.23 million tons of grain in the past marketing year, shut down. Operations at the Novorossiysk Grain Terminal with an annual export capacity of 8.5 million tons have also been halted, S&P Global reports. Other facilities in the region continue to operate, but market participants talk about severe limits on available vessels and shipment delays.
The situation is aggravated because problems with Russian grain exports had already begun in the Sea of Azov. According to Kpler estimates, that route accounted for about 35% of Russian wheat exports. Azov Sea terminals stopped taking grain, while rerouting the entire flow through Novorossiysk is impossible: its capacity even before recent strikes was almost fully loaded, and storage capabilities were estimated at only around 600 thousand tons.
Kpler estimates a potential reduction in Russian wheat exports in the second half of 2026 from the closure of the Azov route at about 6.5 million tons. Most vulnerable are buyers in the Middle East and North Africa: recently more than 60% of wheat they imported came from Russia and Ukraine.
In Russia grain gets cheaper, globally it gets more expensive
The limited ability to ship grain creates a unusual gap between domestic and global markets. Russian farmers are forced to compete for limited export capacity, which pressures procurement prices inside the country. Meanwhile, shrinking available supply from the Black Sea region forces international buyers to look for grain in other countries.
According to USDA, as of August 12, the export price of wheat from the EU rose 10.6% over a month, to $262 per tonne. Canadian grain gained 7.4%, to $292, U.S. grain – 8.8%, to $321. Russian wheat, by contrast, fell 1.3%, to $224 per tonne.
Similar situation in Ukraine
A similar price divergence is already observed in Ukraine. As Current Ukraine reported, problems with Ukrainian seaports led to accumulation of grain inside the country and falling procurement prices, though global quotes were rising. In some cases Ukrainian agricultural products fell to 7000 UAH per tonne – below full production cost.
Meanwhile, disruptions in the Black Sea are already pushing exchange quotes upward. Earlier wheat in Chicago rose to its highest since late July due to risk of supply cuts from the Black Sea region. Thus, port problems simultaneously reduce prices for producers in exporting countries and support prices for buyers on global market.
Based on: S&P Global, Kpler
