Samsung may surpass Apple in smartphone shipments in 2026

Samsung Electronics may regain the world's top spot in smartphone shipments by the end of 2026, overtaking Apple. Shipments of the South Korean company, according to Counterpoint Research's forecast, will grow by approximately 0.8%, even as the entire global market shrinks by 14.3%.

Apple, on the contrary, may reduce its shipments by approximately 2.1% by the end of the year. Analysts expect a recovery of about 2.8% in 2027.

One of Samsung's main advantages in the current crisis, Counterpoint says, is a wide range of devices, presence in a large number of markets, its own component supply capabilities, and a developed network of carriers and distributors.

This allows the company to respond better to component shortages, reallocate smartphones between markets, and maintain necessary production volumes. At the same time, Samsung, according to analysts, may partially sacrifice profitability to preserve market share.

For Apple, one of the risks remains a possible price increase for the iPhone 18 series, as well as a shift in the release schedule of certain models. The company is helped by strong positions in the premium segment, high user loyalty, and priority access to key components.

The first foldable iPhone, according to Counterpoint's forecast, is expected to appear in the third quarter of 2026. However, initial shipments may total only a few million units, so the new product is unlikely to significantly change the overall balance between Apple and Samsung this year.

The forecast of a leadership change came amid a sharp deterioration in the entire smartphone market. Counterpoint expects global shipments in 2026 to decline by 14.3% compared to last year.

The main reasons were rising component costs, memory shortages, a reduction in the supply of budget smartphones, and worsening purchasing power. The crisis hit cheap and mid-priced models especially hard.

Problems may persist next year. In 2027, global smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by another 1.4%, and a more noticeable market recovery is expected only in 2028.

The current downturn may hit large Chinese manufacturers the hardest: their shipments in 2026, depending on the company, may decline by approximately 15-34%. The exception will be Huawei - Counterpoint forecasts an increase in its shipments of about 8% this year and another 4.3% in 2027.

Sources: Counterpoint Research, Yonhap