A second wave of fuel shortages has begun in Russia after record strikes on oil refineries
A second wave of fuel shortages is unfolding in Russia after a record number of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. In August, the Defense Forces attacked Russian refineries at least 21 times - the most in one month. Against this backdrop, oil refining volumes fell almost to a minimum in over two decades, and gasoline disruptions are already being recorded even in Moscow and the Moscow region.
According to Bloomberg calculations based on public statements from the Ukrainian and Russian sides, at least 21 strikes were carried out in August on fuel-producing enterprises. Among the attacked facilities are four of the ten largest oil refineries in Russia.
In the second half of July, the fuel situation in Russia temporarily improved, as the intensity of strikes on oil refining infrastructure decreased. However, in August, attacks resumed with record intensity, which again began to affect the domestic market.
Lines for gasoline appeared even in Moscow
Problems with gasoline availability are now noticeable even in Moscow and the Moscow region - the largest and traditionally best-supplied fuel region in the country.
Residents of the capital exchange information in district and building chats about which gas stations still have gasoline and how long the lines are. According to Bloomberg, a line of 30-50 cars near a gas station is no longer unusual for Moscow.
In dozens of other regions - from the Baltic coast to Siberia - one or another restriction on fuel sales is in effect.
At the same time, the situation strongly depends on the type of gas station. Large oil companies that have their own refineries and direct access to fuel sell gasoline cheaper - less than 80 rubles per liter. At independent stations, where supply is complicated, the price can exceed 100 rubles per liter.
Meanwhile, Russian drivers are still reluctant to buy gasoline at such prices. Therefore, the absence of a line near an independent gas station often means either the absence of fuel, or too high a price.
Oil refining fell to a multi-year low
According to estimates by EA Analytics, a division of the consulting company Energy Aspects, in August Russia refines on average just over 3.8 million barrels of oil per day.
This is one of the lowest indicators in more than 20 years. For comparison, previously in the summer season Russian refineries processed approximately 5.3-5.5 million barrels per day.
It is in summer that fuel consumption traditionally increases due to the vacation season and active agricultural work, so the reduction in refining especially strongly affects the domestic market.
As a result, production and supply of gasoline to the Russian domestic market during the first three weeks of August fell by almost 20% compared to the same period last year, Bloomberg reported, citing a source familiar with the relevant statistics.
Diesel fuel production decreased even more - by more than 23% year-on-year.
Diesel is still sufficient thanks to export restrictions
The situation with diesel fuel on the domestic market remains relatively more stable. Diesel supplies to Russian consumers over the same period decreased only by about 3%.
This was a consequence of export restrictions. Before the start of large-scale attacks on refineries, Russia was one of the world's largest exporters of diesel fuel and provided about 10% of global supplies.
Now significantly larger volumes remain on the domestic market, which allows compensating for the decline in production.
Russia restricts fuel exports
The Russian authorities are trying to contain the shortage with administrative measures. Exports of most gasoline are already banned until the end of January 2027.
In addition, the government is considering the possibility of extending restrictions on diesel fuel exports at least for September or for a longer period.
Regional authorities, meanwhile, are preparing the population for the fact that disruptions may persist after the end of the summer season.
Governor of Voronezh Oblast Alexander Gusev this week acknowledged that the fuel situation remains tense and directly linked it to strikes on oil refineries.
Recovery will depend on new strikes
Energy Aspects forecasts that in September Russia could potentially increase oil refining to approximately 4.2 million barrels per day.
However, company analyst Luis Niv-Haus emphasized that this forecast has significant downside risks if Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries continue at the current pace.
Thus, the situation with fuel supplies in Russia increasingly depends on the ability of damaged refineries to resume operations faster than new facilities drop out of refining due to strikes.
Based on materials: Bloomberg
