Price growth in Poland accelerated stronger than forecasts

Consumer inflation in Poland in August 2026 accelerated to 3.4% year-on-year versus 3.0% in July. The price increase turned out to be noticeably stronger than economists expected.

This is evidenced by the preliminary estimate of the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), released on August 31.

On average, analysts had expected inflation to rise only to 3.1%. Compared to July, consumer prices rose by 0.4%, while the forecast anticipated an increase of about 0.2%.

Thus, inflation approached the upper limit of the acceptable range of the National Bank of Poland. The medium-term inflation target of the NBP is 2.5% with a permissible deviation of one percentage point in both directions - from 1.5% to 3.5%.

Inflation accelerates for the second consecutive month

Back in June, annual inflation was 2.5%, after which in July it accelerated to 3.0%, and now reached 3.4%. In July, compared to the previous month, prices rose by 0.8%.

One of the main factors of the July acceleration was the rise in transport costs, primarily fuel. According to GUS, transport services and goods in July were 7% more expensive than a year earlier, while fuel for private transport sharply increased in price after the end of government price control measures.

Meanwhile, the estimate for August released on August 31 is preliminary and currently does not include a detailed structure of price changes by individual categories. Full data will be published by GUS later.

New data important for rate decision

The unexpected acceleration of inflation may reduce the scope for further monetary policy easing in Poland.

The key NBP rate currently stands at 3.75%. The Monetary Policy Council lowered it to this level in March 2026.

The next two-day meeting of the RPP is scheduled for September 1-2. The new inflation data will be one of the main indicators that the Council will consider when making an interest rate decision.

The acceleration of CPI almost to the upper limit of the NBP target range strengthens the arguments in favor of keeping the rate unchanged, especially amid high energy prices and external inflationary risks.

For the Polish zloty, a longer period of high rates could be a supportive factor, although the currency is simultaneously under pressure from the strengthening of the dollar after more hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and high geopolitical uncertainty.

Based on materials: Business Insider Polska, National Bank of Poland