Bill on tightening sanctions against Russia may be postponed until midterm elections in US

The massive bill on strengthening sanctions against Russia and its trading partners, which at the beginning of August was supported by the overwhelming majority of the US Senate, is unlikely to be placed on a vote in the House of Representatives before the midterm elections on November 3. Among the main obstacles now cited are not only disputes over the tariff powers of President Donald Trump, but also concerns that the new restrictions could push global oil and gasoline prices up in the US.

House Speaker Mike Johnson on Thursday questioned the possibility of voting on the bill before the elections. According to him, over the next two months, congressmen will have only a few working days in Washington, and there remain disagreements around the document itself among both Democrats and Republicans.

"We all believe in the need for sanctions against Russia, but if we pass the bill, a proper formula is needed. We are trying to work this out and make sure that we can prepare a document that will pass a vote," Johnson said.

This refers to the bill that was promoted by Senator Lindsey Graham and that the Senate approved on August 7 by 86 votes to 11. The document was intended to be one of the main tools of additional economic pressure on Moscow and countries that continue to buy Russian energy resources.

The bill, in particular, would allow the US President to impose 100 percent tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian oil and natural gas, as well as countries that help Moscow evade energy sanctions. The largest buyers of Russian energy resources include China, India, and Turkey.

Congress worries about rising oil and gasoline prices

A new obstacle to the bill's progress has been concerns about its possible impact on the energy market. The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Brian Mast, confirmed that lawmakers are assessing the potential consequences of sanctions on gasoline prices.

In particular, if India and other major buyers are forced to reduce purchases of Russian oil, they will have to compete more actively for raw materials from other countries. In Congress, there are fears that this could increase demand for alternative supplies and push global oil prices up.

"That is part of what is being assessed now," Mast said.

The price factor has become especially sensitive for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Since the start of the war with Iran, fuel in the US has sharply increased in price, and high gasoline prices are seen as one of the risks to the Republican majority in Congress.

Democrats oppose new tariff powers for Trump

At the same time, one of the main objections of Democrats to the bill does not concern sanctions against Russia per se. They fear that the document will give the Trump administration a new legal basis for imposing tariffs widely at a time when some of the tariffs already introduced by the president are being challenged in courts.

Leading Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Gregory Meeks, said he is not ready to support giving the president tariff powers that he currently does not have. He also criticized the provision that allows the head of the White House to make exceptions to sanctions, believing that it weakens the bill.

A similar position is taken by Democrat Brad Schneider. According to him, the tariff provision remains unacceptable.

"I am not ready to give any president, and especially this president, even more unrestricted tariff powers," Schneider said.

Johnson acknowledged that leading Democrats on the foreign affairs and tax committees oppose the document. According to him, there are also "pockets" of concern among Republicans.

American businesses also oppose the tariff portion

Major business associations have joined the critics of the bill. A coalition of lobbying organizations, including the US Chamber of Commerce, the Retail Industry Leaders Association, and the National Foreign Trade Council, wrote to Congress in August with warnings about the possible consequences of the document.

Businesses fear that the bill would allow imposing large-scale new tariffs against countries that are simultaneously important trading partners of the US. The National Foreign Trade Council includes, among others, major international companies ExxonMobil, General Electric, Ford, and Pfizer.

Earlier, after the House returned from a five-week summer recess, the bill did not make it onto the list of priority documents of the Republican leadership. House Rules Committee Chairwoman Virginia Foxx said that the issue of the document had not even been discussed at a meeting of committee chairs.

Theoretically, Johnson could try to move the bill under an expedited procedure, but this requires the support of two-thirds of the House. With a narrow Republican majority and opposition from some lawmakers of both parties, a significant number of Democratic votes would be needed for this.

Thus, after the convincing support in the Senate, the prospects for rapid passage of the sanctions package in the House have significantly deteriorated. If lawmakers fail to overcome disagreements in the near future, consideration of the document may be postponed at least until after the midterm elections.

Based on materials from: Bloomberg, Politico, Kurs Ukrainy