Skilled labor shortage in Germany could nearly double

In Germany, the shortage of skilled workers could increase sharply over the next few years. If current labor market trends continue, the country could face a shortage of around 723,000 specialists in 2029, compared to fewer than 370,000 in 2025.

This is according to a new study by the German Economic Institute (IW).

Researchers expect the greatest staff shortage in the retail trade. In 2029, the number of unfilled vacancies for salespeople and workers in related professions could reach about 39,100.

In second place is childcare and preschool education, where approximately 29,900 specialists could be lacking. In social work and pedagogy, the gap is estimated at 23,600 workers, in the nursing sector at 18,700, and among electricians in the construction sector at about 17,400.

Baby boomers' retirement will exacerbate the problem

One of the main reasons for the worsening situation, according to IW, is demographic change. Representatives of the baby boomer generation will increasingly retire, and the number of young workers replacing them will be insufficient.

In addition, the influx of workers from abroad has recently been decreasing. According to the institute's assessment, Germany's domestic labor resources will not be enough to compensate for demographic losses, so the country will have to more actively attract skilled workers from non-EU countries.

IW warns that the labor shortage could also become a problem for Germany's large-scale investment programs. In particular, by 2029 there could be a shortage of about 15,000 specialists in construction planning and supervision, as well as almost 16,000 workers in automotive technology, 13,800 specialists in industrial electrical engineering, and 13,600 mechatronics technicians.

At the same time, IW emphasizes that the calculations presented are not a forecast in the traditional sense. Researchers extrapolated to 2029 trends observed in about 1,300 occupations based on data through the end of 2024. The actual situation will depend, among other things, on migration, retirement age, career choices of young people, and investments in retraining workers.

Sources: German Economic Institute (IW), BR24