Ukraine Risks Losing Up to $10 Billion in Agricultural Revenue Due to Port Issues

Under a pessimistic scenario, Ukraine may under-export up to 30 million tons of agricultural products during the year and lose up to $10 billion in export revenue if maritime logistics restrictions persist for a long time.

This assessment was voiced by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi during the business dialogue "Anti-crisis protocols and logistics diplomacy".

At the same time, in September the export situation began to improve. In the first 20 days of the month, Ukrainian agricultural producers were able to export a volume equivalent to approximately 44% of potential shipments given current production. In August this figure was about 30%.

According to Vysotskyi, the increase in shipments was the result of gradual expansion of alternative routes. Even under current conditions, through the Danube, railway crossings and road routes, Ukraine can provide at least half of the required agricultural exports.

However, these routes cannot be a full replacement for large seaports. Their capacity is limited, and transportation costs are significantly higher. For some agricultural products, the costs of alternative logistics can actually make exports economically senseless.

Earlier Kurs.com.ua wrote that in the first part of September, via alternative routes Ukraine exported about 630 thousand tons of agricultural products. At that time they provided approximately 40% of the volumes that could have been shipped under normal operation of the maritime direction.

Despite the September acceleration, the accumulated lag compared to last season remains significant. As of September 21, since the beginning of the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine exported 4.662 million tons of grains and legumes - about 22% less than a year earlier.

Wheat and barley supplies declined the most. Wheat exports fell by almost 44%, to 2.337 million tons, and barley by approximately 47%, to 420 thousand tons. At the same time, corn exports more than doubled and reached 1.841 million tons.

In just under three weeks of September, grain exports amounted to 928 thousand tons against 1.774 million tons for the same period last year. Thus, the current recovery of logistics does not yet compensate for the losses accumulated after the deterioration of maritime routes.

Export restrictions are already influencing agricultural production decisions. According to Vysotskyi, farmers take logistics risks into account when planning sowing. Currently, about 1 million hectares are sown with winter rapeseed, which roughly corresponds to the plan, and sowing of winter wheat is also ongoing.

At the same time, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy sees no risk of food shortage within the country. Domestic consumption accounts for approximately 25-30% of agricultural production, while about 70% is traditionally oriented towards foreign markets. Therefore, the main consequences of prolonged port problems should not be food-related but economic - loss of foreign currency earnings, more expensive logistics and deterioration of producers' financial situation.

Vysotskyi named the government's main task as restoring full exports through the ports of Greater Odesa in parallel with further development of alternative routes.

Based on materials from: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine