China lags ASML by 15 years in key chipmaking technology
China may need about 15 years to independently create equipment for EUV lithography necessary for producing the most advanced microchips. This assessment was given by the head of the semiconductor division of Germany's Zeiss, Frank Romund.
According to him, the 15-year timeframe is a "reasonable assumption", although it is difficult to accurately assess the real progress of China's semiconductor industry. EUV, or extreme ultraviolet lithography, is used for manufacturing the most advanced chips, in particular processors for artificial intelligence systems.
Currently the only serial EUV equipment manufacturer in the world is the Dutch ASML. Zeiss supplies complex optical systems for these machines. The unavailability of such equipment remains one of the main technological limitations for the development of advanced chip production in China.
The US and its allies have been restricting the supply of the most advanced equipment for the semiconductor industry to Beijing over recent years. ASML cannot sell its EUV systems to China, and special licenses are also required for exporting some of the more modern machines of the previous DUV generation.
Zeiss's assessment is close to UBS analysts' forecast. This week they suggested that China would need at least a decade to create its own EUV technology capable of competing with ASML equipment.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies have already made progress in producing lithography equipment of the previous generation. In July it was reported that a company from Shanghai began production of its own immersion DUV lithography systems. Romund noted that China has been working on such technologies for decades, so the very fact of new equipment emerging did not come as a surprise. According to him, now the main question will be its real performance and technological level.
And the head of Zeiss's semiconductor business spoke out against further expansion of export restrictions on older DUV systems. He believes that such measures may have the opposite effect, as they stimulate China to invest faster in its own technologies and reduce dependence on Western suppliers.
China remains one of ASML's largest markets for DUV equipment. Beijing simultaneously directs significant resources to developing its own semiconductor manufacturing, striving to reduce dependence on foreign technologies amid American restrictions.
Zeiss estimates that the company's components are used in the production of about 80% of microchips worldwide. Amidst a sharp increase in demand for equipment for producing AI chips, the company is expanding capacity in Germany and building a new plant.
