Buckwheat in Ukraine may continue to rise in price due to supply shortage

The supply of buckwheat in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year may decrease by almost 30%, and its carry-over over projected domestic consumption will be only about 17 thousand tons. Against this background, processors are already raising wholesale prices for buckwheat groats, and the increase may continue.

This assessment was voiced by Andriy Kupchenko, head of business projects at IA "APK-Inform", during the "Grain and Processing" conference.

According to the agency's forecast, the total supply of buckwheat in the new season will be about 112.2 thousand tons. This is almost 30% less than in the previous season.

Meanwhile, domestic consumption in 2026/27 MY is estimated at 95 thousand tons. Thus, the available supply will exceed domestic market demand by only about 17 thousand tons.

"In the new season, the total supply of buckwheat may reach 112.2 thousand tons, which is almost 30% less than the previous season's figure", - noted Kupchenko.

Buckwheat area decreased by almost 18%

One of the reasons for the tight balance is the reduction in sown areas. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2026 buckwheat is to be harvested from 48.6 thousand hectares versus 59 thousand hectares last year - almost 18% less.

APK-Inform currently forecasts the gross harvest of the crop at 62.2 thousand tons, which is 12% less than last year's figure.

Additionally, the situation is complicated by lower yields. As of September 14, the average yield was 14.5 c/ha versus 14.8 c/ha a year earlier.

Prices have already gone up

The reduced supply is already reflected in wholesale prices. According to APK-Inform monitoring, as of September 11, the average wholesale price of processors for buckwheat groats reached 65 thousand UAH per ton.

In just one week, it increased by 3 thousand UAH per ton, or about 4.8%.

The agency expects that the increase may continue. In addition to the smaller harvest, prices are supported by more active demand from the population, which is building up reserves ahead of a difficult winter.

Another risk, according to analysts, is Russian attacks on warehouses and retail logistics infrastructure. Damage to them may hinder the supply of products directly to stores and further increase price pressure.

Thus, the buckwheat market is entering a period of limited supply carry-over for the second consecutive season. Even without an actual deficit, the small gap between available volumes and domestic consumption makes prices more sensitive to problems with harvest, logistics, and demand.

Based on materials from: APK-Inform