The Ministry of Defense estimates war expenses in 2027 at $175 billion, but the budget allocates significantly less – Ministry of Finance
The Ministry of Defense estimates Ukraine's total need for waging war in 2027 at approximately $175 billion. This is $20 billion more than the estimate for the current year, while the draft state budget currently provides for a resource of about $100 billion.
This was reported by First Deputy Minister of Finance Roman Yermolychev during the September review of the Ukrainian economy by the Center for Economic Strategy.
According to him, the Ministry of Defense's estimate assumes that the total cost of the war next year will be about $175 billion. At the same time, the state budget's capabilities cover only part of this need, so the rest must be attracted by Ukraine with the help of international partners – both in the form of financing and through mechanisms for supplying weapons and military equipment.
The official draft state budget for 2027 allocates 4.885 trillion UAH for the security and defense sector. This is 517.9 billion UAH, or 11.9%, more than the plan for 2026 with the amendments taken into account.
Yermolychev noted that the government deliberately increased the resource for defense already at the stage of budget preparation. In particular, the calculations include additional needs that emerged in 2026, as well as the consequences of increasing the monetary allowance for military personnel. At the same time, it is impossible to fully predict future expenses: they may be affected by the size of the army, the pace of hostilities, and the need for weapons.
For comparison, Ukraine's total need for waging war in 2026 was estimated at $155 billion. Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky previously explained that Ukraine presented this amount to partners at the beginning of the year in the "Ramstein" format.
The $155 billion includes not only direct expenditures of the Ukrainian budget, but also military assistance from partners in kind – missiles for air defense systems, launchers, aircraft, ammunition, and other weapons. Therefore, the $175 billion figure for 2027 should also be viewed as the total need for waging war, not just as state budget expenditures.
Thus, according to the current estimate of the Ministry of Defense, the total cost of the war for Ukraine next year may increase by about $20 billion. The government plans to cover part of the gap between needs and domestic budget resources together with international partners.
Separately, the Ministry of Finance estimates Ukraine's need for external financing of the state budget itself for 2027 at $52.6 billion. About $20 billion of this amount already has identified or expected sources, while another $32.6 billion requires confirmation. This is a need separate from the total cost of the war, related to financing the state budget.
Based on materials from: Center for Economic Strategy, Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, TSN
