Euro ends September with notable weakening
The euro is closing September under noticeable pressure from the US dollar. On Wednesday, September 30, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1329–1.1343 dollars per euro. Yesterday, the European currency updated its low since May 2025 near 1.1312 dollars. Overall, in September, the dollar strengthened against the euro by approximately 2.5%.
The main factor supporting the American currency remains expectations regarding Fed interest rates. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, which increases the attractiveness of dollar assets. At the same time, investors continue to assess the consequences of high energy prices for inflation and monetary policy.
Today's focus is on Eurozone statistics
On September 30, the market will have to assess the next portion of European macroeconomic information. In particular, investors continue to take into account the deterioration in sentiment in the eurozone economy: the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in September fell to 97.9 points against 98.4 in August, although sentiment in industry and the services sector improved somewhat. Consumer sentiment, on the contrary, worsened. At the same time, the European economy is showing a certain resilience.
According to the latest Eurostat data, eurozone GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, whereas in the first quarter there was no growth. However, at the same time, inflation accelerated in August to 3.2%, while industrial production and retail sales showed weak dynamics. It is this combination of relatively decent economic growth with elevated inflation that creates a difficult situation for the ECB: higher inflation limits the possibilities for monetary easing, but the energy shock simultaneously threatens economic activity.
US GDP may cause a strong move in EUR/USD
Particular attention today will be focused on the third, final estimate of US GDP for Q2 2026. The publication is scheduled by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for September 30 at 8:30 a.m. US time (3:30 p.m. Kyiv time).
The previous estimate showed growth of the American economy in Q2 at 1.5% annualized. That is why an unexpected increase or decrease in the final figure could significantly affect expectations regarding further Fed decisions.
If the final GDP turns out to be higher than expected, this could support the dollar: a strong economy gives the Fed more room to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy. A weaker figure, on the contrary, may strengthen expectations of rate cuts and put pressure on the dollar, which could create conditions for a EUR/USD rebound.
Thus, today the euro remains vulnerable, and the reaction of the EUR/USD pair will depend not only on European statistics but also primarily on US GDP and subsequent expectations regarding the Fed. An additional factor remains oil prices and the situation in the Middle East: persistent energy risks are especially sensitive for the European economy.
