Trump claims US has full control over Hormuz amid recovery of oil flows

US President Donald Trump said that the United States effectively controls traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and has "full control" over it. His statement came amid a significant recovery of oil shipments from the Persian Gulf after months of disruptions.

Trump said this during a conversation with journalists on September 30. 

"A huge amount of oil is currently going through the Strait of Hormuz. We control it. We literally control it. We have full control", - said the US President.

Trump also claims that in the last two days, more oil passed through the region than ever before. At the same time, he acknowledged that the situation could change quickly, particularly due to the mine threat: even a report of a mine could force operators of expensive tankers to refuse passage through the strait.

Data from the analytical company Kpler confirm a sharp recovery of oil flows from the region, but indicate that traffic directly through Hormuz has not yet returned to the pre-war structure.

According to Kpler's estimate, from September 1 to 28, Persian Gulf countries excluding Iran exported at least 16.5 million barrels of crude oil per day - roughly the same as before the war. At the same time, physically about 60% of these volumes, or 9.9 million barrels per day, passed through the Strait of Hormuz itself. About 40% of exports were carried by alternative routes through the coast of the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea.

Before the war, about 83% of crude oil exported by regional countries passed through Hormuz. According to Kpler, the confirmed volume of current shipments directly through the strait is still more than a quarter below the pre-war level. Part of the actual traffic is harder to track because tankers pass the section with AIS transponders turned off, and cargoes are transferred to other ships after exiting the strait.

The recovery of overall exports is also confirmed by bank estimates. Earlier, Bloomberg, citing JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, reported that oil supplies from the Middle East have already approached pre-war levels. One of the factors was the resumption of operation of the Saudi East-West pipeline, which allows crude to be transported via the Red Sea bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the return of large volumes of oil does not yet mean full normalization of shipping. According to the Financial Times, US military cover helped increase the number of ship passages through the strait, but risks of attacks in the region remain.

Thus, Trump's statement about US control over the Strait of Hormuz coincides with a period of rapid recovery of oil flows, but independent data show that a significant part of exports still goes by alternative routes, and traffic directly through the strait remains below pre-war levels.

Based on: Donald Trump's speech, Kpler, Bloomberg