Ports and exports drag Ukraine's economy down: EBRD sharply worsens forecast
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has once again worsened its forecast for Ukraine's economy. In 2026, real gross domestic product (GDP), according to the bank's new estimate, will grow by only 1.5% instead of the previously expected 2.2%.
The forecast for 2027 has also been revised significantly downward — from 4% to 2.5%. The EBRD attributes the deterioration primarily to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, enterprises, Black Sea ports, and transport routes.
One of the most serious risks is now related to exports. The bank expects that in the second half of 2026, exports of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds could decrease by 50–60% due to problems with ports and logistics.
The economy has shifted to a state close to stagnation
The new estimates demonstrate how weak the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy have become.
In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP decreased by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. In the second quarter, the economy grew by 0.6%.
As a result, growth in the first half of the year was practically zero. The EBRD notes that the economy has moved from slow recovery to a state close to stagnation.
Economic activity continues to be supported by defense production, government spending, and a relatively resilient services sector. But this effect is increasingly offset by infrastructure destruction, labor shortages, deteriorating business expectations, and new export difficulties.
Strikes on ports have sharply worsened export capabilities
One of the key factors in the EBRD's forecast revision is Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, civilian shipping, and transport infrastructure.
For Ukraine, seaports are of particular importance. Through them, the country ships grain, vegetable oils, iron ore, metal products, and other bulk cargo abroad.
Alternative routes through the Danube and land borders with the European Union remain important but cannot fully replace deep-water Black Sea ports.
Additional constraints are created by low water levels in the Danube, strikes on rail infrastructure, and a shortage of rolling stock.
As a result, the problem is no longer just about production output but also about the ability to deliver it to foreign markets quickly and relatively cheaply.
Exports of grain and oilseeds could decline by 50–60%
The EBRD's most drastic assessment concerns agricultural exports.
The bank expects that in the second half of 2026, shipments of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds abroad could decline by 50–60%.
For farmers, this means not only loss of export revenue. If the harvest cannot be shipped out in time, produce remains in warehouses and elevators longer, and companies need more funds simultaneously for storing the crop and financing the next production cycle.
Alternative logistics via the Danube, rail, and road crossings usually costs more than sea transport.
Therefore, the decline in exports puts pressure on several indicators at once: farmers' incomes, the country's foreign exchange earnings, the trade balance, and the growth rate of the entire economy.
The consequences may also be felt by world markets
The problems with Ukrainian exports matter far beyond the country's borders.
According to the EBRD, global wheat prices have risen by more than a third since February—to about $7.50 per bushel. The bank allows for the possibility that the elevated price level could persist until 2028.
Particularly sensitive to such dynamics are countries with lower household incomes, where food accounts for a significant share of family expenditures.
Therefore, disruptions in Ukrainian ports simultaneously become a factor for Ukraine's domestic economy and for the global food market.
Energy and imports also pressure the economy
Another serious constraint remains Russian strikes on the energy system.
Ukraine must devote significant resources to infrastructure restoration and increase energy imports. At the same time, defense imports remain high.
Against this backdrop, the trade deficit in goods is widening.
Inflation, according to the EBRD, accelerated to 7.7% in July. The bank attributes price pressure partly to more expensive fuel and energy, currency factors, and labor shortages.
At the same time, substantial international financial support still allows Ukraine to maintain macroeconomic stability despite high military spending and external imbalances.
Why the 2027 forecast was also lowered
Not long ago, the EBRD expected the Ukrainian economy to accelerate to 4% growth in 2027. Now the forecast is only 2.5%.
And even this scenario remains conditional.
The outlook will depend primarily on the course of the war, the state of energy infrastructure, the ability to reliably use the Black Sea export route, and the continuation of international financial support.
If attacks on ports and energy intensify or problems arise with external financing, economic dynamics could turn out worse than the current forecast.
Conversely, more stable operation of seaborne exports could significantly ease pressure on the economy.
What GDP growth of only 1.5% means
Formally, Ukraine's economy will continue to grow in 2026. But a 1.5% forecast leaves very little margin of safety.
New destruction of energy infrastructure, prolonged port restrictions, or worsening external financing could quickly erode this growth.
Exports become especially important: during the war, the country needs to simultaneously earn foreign exchange revenue, finance businesses, and cover enormous government expenditures.
The new EBRD forecast shows that one of the key constraints for Ukraine's economy is no longer only the ability to produce goods, but also the ability to export them safely and relatively cheaply.
Based on materials from: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
