FT: Ukraine risks losing a significant portion of export revenue due to blocked ports

Ukraine risks losing at least 8 billion dollars in export revenue from June 2026 to June 2027 if the Black Sea ports remain closed.

This is reported by the Financial Times citing an assessment by Taras Vysotskyi.

According to him, such a shortfall would equal about 20% of Ukraine's total export revenue last year. This is a forecast assuming a prolonged shutdown of ports, not already incurred losses.

Ukraine expected to export 64 million tons of agricultural products this year. However, without restoring sea transportation, according to Vysotskyi's estimate, at best only half of this volume can be shipped.

As reported by FT, Russian attacks on ships and port infrastructure effectively halted the main maritime export route. Road transport is much more expensive and cannot compensate for its loss.

Even the restoration of shipping does not mean a return to previous volumes. Risoil terminal owner in Chornomorsk, Shota Khadzhishvili, told the publication that after the shelling, the enterprise could operate at only 30% capacity: loading two vessels simultaneously instead of five.

The scale of dependence of Ukrainian exports on the Black Sea is evident from port statistics. According to the Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories, the ports of Greater Odesa handle about 90% of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Since the launch of the Ukrainian maritime corridor in autumn 2023, over 209 million tons of cargo have been transported through them, of which 124 million tons were grain.

Alternative routes have significantly lower capacity. In the first seven months of 2026, 42.2 million tons of cargo passed through the ports of Greater Odesa, while through the Danube region ports — only 3.8 million tons. Ukraine, along with the European Commission, Romania and Moldova, is working on expanding the Danube route, railway and road crossings, but current volumes show that they are not yet able to fully replace the Black Sea ports.

The halt of maritime exports is particularly sensitive for the agri-sector. In 2025, Ukraine exported agricultural products worth $22.6 billion — about 56% of the country's total exports. Thus, prolonged blocking of maritime logistics threatens not only grain producers and port business, but also foreign currency revenues and the trade balance of the state.

Based on materials: Ekonomichna Pravda Financial Times, Ministry of Economy