Ukrainians mostly believe in victory, but absolute confidence has decreased - survey

The absolute majority of Ukrainians continue to believe that Ukraine will eventually win the war, but over the past month and a half, this confidence has become noticeably less categorical.

This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on September 12-21, 2026.

In total, 79% of respondents believe that Ukraine will win the war. At the same time, only 47% are absolutely confident in such an outcome, while another 32% responded that they rather believe in victory.

Russia's victory is predicted by 7% of respondents. Another 14% were unable to determine their answer.

At the end of July 2026, sentiments were more optimistic: then, 85% of respondents overall believed in Ukraine's victory, and the share of those who were absolutely confident in it was 60%.

Thus, over a month and a half, the share of those absolutely confident in victory decreased by 13 percentage points to 47%. Some of these respondents moved to the more cautious answer "rather yes", and partly the shares of those expecting Russia's victory or undecided increased.

At the same time, in the longer term, the changes are not as significant. KIIS notes that the overall level of faith in Ukraine's victory remains approximately the same as in February 2025.

Sociologists conclude that the absolute majority of citizens have not lost faith in a positive outcome of the war for Ukraine, but this faith has become less certain.

However, the survey data do not indicate a sharp increase in society's readiness to end the war under any conditions. 62% of Ukrainians declared that they are ready to endure the war as long as necessary. This indicator practically did not change compared to late July - early August.

Another 4% are ready to endure the war for about a year, while 23% named a shorter period - from a few months to half a year.

Meanwhile, 75% of respondents allow negotiations with Russia to end the war. KIIS emphasizes that this answer refers to the very fact of negotiations and does not mean support for concessions to Moscow.

Also, 69% of respondents are ready to support an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline, provided that Ukraine legally does not recognize the occupied territories as Russian, continues to strengthen the army, and moves towards the EU and NATO.

KIIS links the high support for such a scenario precisely to the presence of these conditions and expectations of real security guarantees, and not just to the desire to stop hostilities.

The survey was conducted by telephone interviews among 1002 adult citizens of Ukraine living in government-controlled territory. The sample did not include residents of occupied territories who remain there, as well as citizens who went abroad after February 24, 2022.

For indicators close to 50%, the formal statistical error does not exceed 4.1%. KIIS also notes that in wartime conditions, systematic deviations may add to the usual statistical error.

Based on materials: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology