Kremlin counts on decline of support for Ukraine in Europe and prepares escalation - WP
The Kremlin expects that internal political and economic problems in European countries will weaken their readiness to support Ukraine in the coming months. Against this backdrop, Moscow does not show readiness to abandon its maximalist demands and instead steps up military and hybrid pressure.
This is reported by The Washington Post citing Russian and European officials and analysts.
According to the publication’s sources, Vladimir Putin proceeds from the assumption that Russia has an advantage in a war of attrition not only against Ukraine but also against Europe. After the administration of US President Donald Trump refused to seek new funding for Kiev through Congress, the Kremlin increasingly views European states as the main external obstacle to achieving its goals in the war.
One Russian official told WP that Moscow intends to move along the path of further escalation to deter Europe, while continuing strikes on Ukraine, using the limited capabilities of Ukrainian missile defense.
According to him, attempts to resume peace negotiations are effectively not making progress. The publication notes that Putin shows no readiness to abandon his maximalist demands in exchange for a peace agreement.
Moscow expects that internal problems of European states will gradually change the political situation. Among them, WP names budgetary difficulties and protests in France, political problems in Germany, and the energy crisis that increases pressure on European governments.
Russian opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky believes that the Kremlin expects a significant deterioration of the situation for supporters of Ukraine in Europe by next summer. Such an expectation, in his opinion, gives Moscow additional motivation to continue attacks.
Strikes on Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure are named as a separate part of the Russian strategy by WP sources. Their goal, they believe, is to maximally worsen living conditions in Ukraine in winter and increase pressure on the state and population.
In parallel, Russia is intensifying what European officials call a hybrid war against European countries. This includes disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, sabotage, and other operations that, according to European governments and intelligence agencies, aim to sow instability and undermine support for Ukraine.
The day before, heads of German intelligence services also publicly warned of increasing Russian pressure. As reported by the Bundestag, the head of the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany (BND), Martin Jäger, stated that the previously predicted escalation of the situation has already fully occurred, and Russia is simultaneously escalating the war against Ukraine and increasing pressure on Europe and Germany.
According to him, Moscow is closely monitoring the reaction of European states, and any signs of hesitation may push it to further intensify pressure. The heads of German intelligence services called Russia the most serious current security threat to Germany and declared specific hybrid attacks against the country.
Another instrument of pressure remains nuclear rhetoric. Last week, Moscow said it was ready to use its entire available arsenal, including nuclear weapons, in case of an attempt by NATO to block the Kaliningrad region. NATO in response called such statements irresponsible nuclear rhetoric.
At the same time, the Kremlin's bet on a protracted confrontation is made against the backdrop of the deteriorating state of the Russian economy itself. WP notes that sanctions and military spending are increasing Russia's budgetary problems, and the draft federal budget provides for a new tax increase and record spending on military needs.
However, according to the Russian official with whom the publication spoke, the Kremlin believes that the economic system is still able to withstand the load. Therefore, Moscow bets on strategic waiting—hoping that the political and economic endurance of European supporters of Ukraine will run out sooner.
Thus, the current Kremlin strategy, according to The Washington Post's sources, is not a rapid search for compromise, but the continuation of a war of attrition: intensifying strikes on Ukraine, pressure on its air defense system, and simultaneous creation of political and security problems for European allies of Kiev.
Based on materials from: The Washington Post, Bundestag
