World economy slows to 2.6%, but trade is growing: UN explains why ordinary people may not feel it

World trade continues to grow, but that doesn't mean ordinary people will feel richer. A new UN report shows an unusual picture: in 2026, the world economy is forecast to grow by just 2.6%, while international trade in goods and services may increase by about 4%.

The result is a paradox: more goods, services and money are moving across borders, yet overall economic growth is slowing. And a significant share of the new income is concentrated in the most profitable technology segments rather than distributed evenly among countries and workers.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) presented its new Trade and Development Report on October 9.

Trade grows faster than the economy — but they are different things

According to UNCTAD's forecast, global gross domestic product will increase by 2.6% in 2026, following growth of 2.9% a year earlier.

For developing countries, the slowdown is even more noticeable: their combined growth is expected to decline from 4.7% to 4%.

At the same time, global trade in goods and services in real terms could increase by about 4%.

At first glance this looks contradictory, but the same good can cross several borders at different stages of production, and individual sectors can rapidly expand international shipments even when the wider economy grows much more slowly.

This is especially visible in the current artificial intelligence boom.

AI is accelerating trade — but the benefit is not shared by all

According to UNCTAD, products related to artificial intelligence (AI) have become one of the main drivers of growth in world trade in manufactured goods.

To build huge computing complexes, not only the best-known processors are needed. Companies purchase servers, memory, networking equipment, optical components, cooling systems and many other parts produced in different countries.

As a result, the investment boom around AI creates a powerful flow of international orders.

But the new UN report also shows the downside of such growth.

In one AI server rack value chain studied by UNCTAD, about 68% of the tracked value added was accounted for by after-tax profits, while the share of workers was less than 15%.

That means a sharp rise in high-tech trade does not necessarily imply a comparable rise in wages or the number of well-paid jobs.

Why record trade may barely be felt in the family budget

For an ordinary person, trillion-dollar volumes of world trade matter only when they translate into higher incomes, new jobs, available credit or lower prices.

But if a large share of the growth is concentrated in capital-intensive sectors where the main value is created by technology, equipment and intellectual property, the effect for workers can be much weaker.

Part of the increased value of trade is also related to more expensive energy and other costs.

In that case, statistics show an increase in money flows, but consumers see the other side: higher energy bills, expensive logistics or rising prices for goods.

This is especially sensitive for low-income families, for whom food, utilities and transport take a large share of the budget.

Global growth remains weak

UNCTAD considers the 2.6% pace insufficient to uniformly support employment, investment and income growth in all regions.

At the same time, the gap between countries is widening.

Asia continues to grow much faster than many other regions. According to the organization's forecast, Asian economies will provide about 59% of the entire global economic growth in 2026.

India may grow by 7.3%, China by about 4.5%, Indonesia by 5.2%.

At the same time, Asia is one of the most important centers for the production of semiconductors, computing equipment and other components needed for AI development.

It is becoming harder for other developing countries to replicate that model: access to technology, capital and the most profitable links of production chains is extremely unevenly distributed.

Trade routes are also changing

Another reason for the unusual statistics is the restructuring of global supply chains.

According to UNCTAD, trade between the U.S. and China fell by more than 20% compared to 2024.

But that does not mean those supplies simply disappeared.

Part of production and trade is being redirected through other Asian economies. As a result, the path of a good from components to the final buyer can become longer, and the number of cross-border transactions may increase.

At the same time, states are more actively using export restrictions, investment controls and industrial policy, especially in strategic sectors — from semiconductors to energy.

So world trade is not disappearing, but becoming more complex and politicized.

Developing countries hampered by expensive money

Another factor that separates big global trade numbers from the everyday economy is the cost of borrowing.

For many developing countries, servicing debt and attracting new financing remains expensive.

This leaves governments with less money for infrastructure, education and other investments that could accelerate economic growth and job creation.

Therefore, two countries can participate in the same growing global turnover of goods, but get completely different effects from it.

Why 4% trade does not mean 4% improvement in life

That becomes the main human takeaway of the new report.

Global trade can grow faster than the economy, and the value of international flows can reach record levels. But these figures do not show who ultimately receives the new income.

If the main benefit goes to the most technological companies and a limited number of countries, while energy and credit become more expensive, for millions of people global growth can remain almost imperceptible.

So the current picture looks unusual: the world continues to actively buy and sell, the AI boom creates huge demand for equipment, and international supply chains become even more complex — yet the world economy itself grows more slowly.

And the question now is not only how many trillions of dollars will pass through world trade, but what part of that growth will ultimately turn into jobs, wages and real incomes for ordinary people.

Based on materials from: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Trade and Development Report 2026.