Finance Ministry reports near-zero economic growth and delayed partner financing
Ukraine's state budget for the first nine months of 2026 received almost UAH 50 billion less than planned revenues amid actual economic stagnation. At the same time, due to non-fulfillment of international commitments, Ukraine has still not received a large tranche of financial assistance that was supposed to arrive in August-September.
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko reported this on October 12 during the Questions to the Government hour in the Verkhovna Rada.
According to him, available economic indicators for 2026 show near-zero real GDP growth. The deterioration of the situation has directly affected tax revenues and the execution of the state budget.
In January-September, the general fund of the state budget received almost UAH 50 billion less than the planned revenue volume. Moreover, UAH 32 billion of this shortfall occurred in August and September alone.
Thus, almost two-thirds of the annual plan underperformance accumulated over nine months occurred in the last two months of the reporting period.
Marchenko warned that by the end of 2026, the undercollection of tax payments could amount to about UAH 70 billion. This is a forecast of the total annual shortfall, not an additional amount on top of the already recorded UAH 50 billion.
Among the main reasons, the minister cited Russian strikes on Ukrainian enterprises, destruction of production facilities and warehouses, disruption of logistics, and blocking of maritime trade routes.
According to him, metallurgy and other export-oriented industries suffered particularly significant losses. Reduced production and sales shrink the tax base, while disrupted supply chains increase business costs.
"It is hard to expect a destroyed business to pay taxes in the volume that was planned", explained Marchenko.
Meanwhile, inflation is accelerating. According to data cited by the minister, in September, annual consumer price growth reached 10%. Among the factors, he named rising production costs and disruptions in the supply of goods.
Ukraine did not receive the planned $4.25 billion tranche
In addition to the decline in domestic revenues, delays in international financial assistance are complicating the budget filling situation.
Marchenko said that Ukraine has still not received macro-financial support in the amount of $4.25 billion, which was expected as early as August-September.
According to the minister's estimate, this amount is comparable to tax revenues to the state budget for about a month and a half. The absence of such funding significantly complicates carrying out planned budget payments.
Overall, according to Marchenko, due to Ukraine's failure to fulfill its international commitments, the volume of unrecured budget support has reached $29.5 billion.
At the same time, the minister clarified that this estimate needs to be adjusted taking into account the latest tranches received. Therefore, this is not about permanently lost funds, but about financing that is delayed and depends on further implementation of partners' conditions.
Among the unfulfilled commitments, Marchenko named the introduction of taxation on international parcels, the appointment of members of the Accounting Chamber, the adoption of legislative changes regarding property valuation, and the resumption of competitions for civil service positions.
The head of the Finance Ministry urged parliament to consider the necessary bills as soon as possible. According to him, Ukraine still has the opportunity to catch up on delays and unblock part of the international assistance before the end of the year.
The funding shortage has already affected the work of the state budget. Marchenko admitted that in October Ukraine entered a budget liquidity crisis. Because of this, the government prioritized funding for defense, pensions, salaries, and social assistance, while some other expenses had to be postponed.
The minister also reported that the government has stepped up domestic borrowing and negotiations with international partners. At the same time, Kyiv needs not only general promises of financial support but also specific schedules for the receipt of funds.
Ukraine needs an additional about €70 billion for 2027
Funding problems may persist next year. According to the Finance Ministry's estimate, Ukraine's uncovered need for international support in 2027 is about €70 billion.
Of this amount, approximately €30 billion is needed to cover budget needs, and another €40 billion to finance the security and defense sector.
Marchenko emphasized that the government continues negotiations with the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, the G7 countries, and the World Bank to attract the necessary resources.
Thus, Ukraine is simultaneously facing a reduction in its own budget revenues, delays in already planned international assistance, and the need to secure significant additional financial needs in 2027.
Based on materials from: Serhiy Marchenko's speech in the Verkhovna Rada, Verkhovna Rada