Business in Ukraine worsens production and employment forecasts
Ukrainian enterprises have significantly worsened their expectations for business development over the next 12 months. Companies forecast a reduction in the production of goods and services, a deterioration of their own financial situation, and a further decrease in the number of employees.
The National Bank of Ukraine reported this on October 15, based on the results of a survey of enterprise managers for the third quarter of 2026.
The business expectations index for enterprises fell to 100.8% against 107% in the second quarter. Thus, the indicator approached the neutral mark of 100%, below which negative assessments of business prospects begin to prevail.
Forecasts regarding the production of goods and services in Ukraine deteriorated most noticeably. The balance of entrepreneurs' responses was minus 11.9% against positive 7.6% a quarter earlier.
Reduction in production volumes is expected by companies in all surveyed types of activity, except for energy and water supply enterprises, which do not forecast changes. Negative assessments also prevail among enterprises in 13 regions.
Business worsened forecasts for its own financial and economic situation. The balance of responses on this indicator decreased to minus 4.3% from positive 2.4% in the second quarter.
At the same time, companies continue to count on sales growth, although their expectations have become significantly more restrained. The balance of responses regarding growth in product sales decreased from 18.4% to 4%, and export sales — from 17% to 2%.
A separate concern is the employment situation. Enterprises expect a further reduction in staff numbers. The balance of responses on this indicator was minus 6.7%.
Negative forecasts regarding the number of employees prevail in almost all sectors. The most substantial reduction in personnel is expected by enterprises in the mining industry.
Military actions and their consequences remain the main obstacles to business development. Enterprises also cite the shortage of qualified workers as a significant limitation.
Despite the deterioration of the overall situation, investment expectations remain positive. Companies continue to plan investments in machinery, equipment, and inventory, but the expected pace of investment growth has slowed.
The balance of responses regarding investments in equipment decreased from 15.5% to 10.4%, and regarding construction work — from 2.1% to 0.5%.
About 35.6% of surveyed enterprises plan to attract bank loans. At the same time, 86.9% of potential borrowers prefer financing in hryvnia.
High interest rates and the availability of alternative sources of financing remain the main reasons for refusing bank lending.
Business inflation expectations for the quarter remained virtually unchanged, while forecasts regarding the weakening of the hryvnia slightly intensified.
The NBU survey was conducted from July 30 to August 28, 2026. It involved 664 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine, representing industry, trade, agriculture, construction, transport, and other sectors.
The National Bank emphasizes that the research results reflect the expectations of company managers, not the official economic forecast of the regulator. Therefore, the negative assessments of enterprises do not mean that a reduction in production and employment will necessarily occur.
Based on materials: National Bank of Ukraine.