Most Ukrainians do not expect a quick end to the war - KIIS

Most Ukrainians do not count on a quick end to the war with Russia. According to the results of a new sociological study, 56% of respondents expect that hostilities may end only in the second half of 2027 or even later. At the same time, a significant part of citizens declares readiness to endure the war as long as necessary.

This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on October 8-16, 2026.

When Ukrainians expect the war to end

Only 10% of respondents believe that the war may end by the end of 2026. Another 13% expect the war to end in the first half of 2027.

Thus, a total of 23% of respondents expect the war to end by the middle of next year.

Instead, 56% of Ukrainians believe that the war will last at least until the second half of 2027. Another 21% could not determine possible terms of its end.

KIIS notes that such results indicate prevailing expectations of a long war among the Ukrainian population.

At the same time, these indicators reflect personal assessments of respondents, and not an expert or military forecast of the development of hostilities.

Most Ukrainians ready to endure the war as long as needed

Despite expectations of a long continuation of the war, the majority of respondents declare readiness to withstand its consequences without a defined end term.

According to KIIS, 62% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war as long as necessary.

Another 4% of respondents named a period of about one year. At the same time, 21% of respondents stated that they are ready to endure the war for a shorter time - from several months to half a year.

The remaining 13% could not decide on an answer.

Sociologists emphasize that nationwide indicators have practically not changed compared to the mid-September study.

Earlier, "Kurs Ukrainy" already reported on the results of a previous KIIS survey, according to which 62% of Ukrainians were also ready to endure the war as long as needed.

Regional differences in readiness to endure the war

The October study also showed certain differences in the responses of residents of different regions of Ukraine.

The largest share of those ready to endure the war without time limit was recorded in the western regions - 69%.

In Kyiv, 68% of respondents gave such an answer, in the Lower Dnipro region - 64%, and in the central and northern regions - 60%.

In the South, 50% of respondents expressed readiness to endure the war as long as necessary, in the East - 47%.

At the same time, in the South, 35% of respondents named a shorter period - from several months to half a year. In the East, 33% of respondents chose this answer.

However, these regional results should be interpreted cautiously. KIIS notes that the number of survey participants in each individual macroregion is relatively small, so the statistical error of regional estimates exceeds the nationwide one.

Accordingly, differences between regions and changes compared to previous months do not necessarily indicate statistically significant changes in public sentiment.

Did sentiments change during October

Researchers also compared the answers of Ukrainians surveyed on October 8-9 with the results of interviews conducted on October 10-16.

In the first group, 60% of respondents said they were ready to endure the war as long as necessary. In the second group, the figure was 63%.

However, this difference is within the statistical error, so it does not allow conclusions about a reliable increase in Ukrainians' readiness to endure the war during this period.

Research methodology

The KIIS survey was conducted on October 8-16, 2026 using telephone interviews. It involved 1031 adult citizens of Ukraine living in territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The study did not cover citizens remaining in temporarily occupied territories, as well as Ukrainians who went abroad after February 24, 2022.

The formal statistical error of the total sample for indicators close to 50% does not exceed 4%. At the same time, sociologists draw attention to additional limitations of surveys conducted in wartime conditions.

Based on materials: KIIS, 19.10.2026