The gap between Russian gas prices for China and other countries reaches a record high
The difference between the prices of Russian natural gas for China and other foreign buyers in 2026 could reach a record level. According to new budget forecasts of the Russian Federation, Beijing will pay for gas supplied via the Power of Siberia pipeline approximately 56% less than the rest of Gazprom's foreign customers.
This is reported by The Moscow Times with reference to materials from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the draft budget, published in the State Duma database.
According to the new calculations, the average annual price of Russian gas for China in 2026 will be $247.9 per thousand cubic meters. At the same time, other Gazprom buyers in far abroad countries will pay on average $562.
Thus, the price difference will be approximately $314 per thousand cubic meters, or almost 56%.
For comparison, in 2025 the cost of gas for China was $240.3 per thousand cubic meters, while other foreign buyers paid on average $406.5. The then difference was about 41%.
Thus, over the year the price gap will increase by about 15 percentage points. At the same time, gas for China itself has not become cheaper: its forecast average price has risen. The increase in the relative discount is explained by the significantly faster rise in prices of supplies to other markets.
The new calculations also differ from the previous government forecasts of the Russian Federation. Back in April it was reported that in 2026 Chinese buyers would receive Russian gas approximately 39% cheaper than Gazprom's European customers.
A significant price difference will persist in the coming years. According to the forecast of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, in 2027 China will pay $251.3 per thousand cubic meters versus $450 for other foreign buyers. This is approximately 44% less.
In 2028, a reduction in the price gap to 32% is expected - $247.8 versus $361.9. In 2029, it should decrease to 24% - $246.4 versus $323.2 per thousand cubic meters.
China buys Russian gas cheaper than Turkmen gas
According to Sergei Vakulenko, senior fellow at the Berlin Carnegie Center, the terms of gas supplies from Russia to China remain less favorable for the seller than similar contracts from Turkmenistan.
After analyzing Chinese customs statistics and contract price formulas, the expert found that on average Beijing pays for Turkmen gas about $40-60 more per thousand cubic meters.
At the same time, Turkmenistan has to transport gas via a pipeline about 1,800 kilometers long through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Russian gas arrives in northeastern China, much closer to large consumption centers.
In Vakulenko's opinion, the terms of the Power of Siberia contract demonstrate Moscow's limited ability to get more favorable prices from Chinese buyers. The situation is complicated by the loss of a significant part of the European market.
Export growth does not compensate for the loss of Europe
According to Vakulenko's calculations, in 2025 Russia supplied about 39.4 billion cubic meters of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. In 2026, if the pace of deliveries of the first seven months continues, this figure could reach 40.5 bcm.
However, even such volumes remain significantly smaller than pre-war Russian gas exports to the European Union, which in peak years approached 200 bcm annually.
Russia is also trying to agree on the construction of a second major gas pipeline to China through Mongolia - Power of Siberia 2. However, negotiations have been going on for more than ten years, and one of the key issues remains the price of future supplies.
According to sources of the South China Morning Post, China insists on a significantly lower gas price - about $50-150 per thousand cubic meters. Moscow, for its part, seeks to maintain the current pricing principle.
Thus, expanding gas exports to China allows Russia to partially replace lost European volumes, but does not yet provide comparable conditions for the sale of raw materials.
Sources: The Moscow Times, Berlin Carnegie Center, South China Morning Post
